## 1. Game 3: Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix **Side:** Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1+ threes | **Units:** 2.0 | **Label:** Lead Play **Vol:** $10,930 | **Starts:** 2026-04-25 15:30 ET **Fair Price:** 89% | **Entry:** 79% | **Edge:** 10.0% ### Alpha **Analysis:** SGA averages 4.4 three-point attempts per game, and with Jalen Williams' 24% usage sidelined, his offensive volume is guaranteed. Mathematical binomial modeling projects an 89% probability of at least one make, providing a significant cushion against the 0.79 market entry.

**Key Data:**

--- ## 2. Game 3: Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix **Side:** Devin Booker: 25+ points | **Units:** 1.5 | **Label:** High Conviction **Vol:** $3,855 | **Starts:** 2026-04-25 15:30 ET **Fair Price:** 57% | **Entry:** 45% | **Edge:** 12.0% ### Alpha **Analysis:** With Phoenix facing a potential 0-3 deficit and Grayson Allen hobbled, Booker's usage is projected to spike well above his 30% baseline. His 26.1 PPG average and the necessity for high-volume scoring in an elimination-style atmosphere make the 45% price a glaring market inefficiency.

**Key Data:**

--- ## 3. Game 4: Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia **Side:** Pittsburgh Penguins wins by over 2.5 goals | **Units:** 0.5 | **Label:** Speculative **Vol:** $536 | **Starts:** 2026-04-25 20:00 ET **Fair Price:** 29% | **Entry:** 18% | **Edge:** 11.0% ### Alpha **Analysis:** This is a high-upside play on an elimination game where trailing teams pull goalies early, leading to multi-goal swings. With Flyers' goalie Dan Vladar (94.7% SV) questionable, Pittsburgh's veteran core is priced at a massive discount to avoid the sweep.

**Key Data:**

--- ## 4. Game 4: Carolina vs. Ottawa **Side:** Carolina Hurricanes wins by over 2.5 goals | **Units:** 0.5 | **Label:** Speculative **Vol:** $6,135 | **Starts:** 2026-04-25 15:00 ET **Fair Price:** 29% | **Entry:** 21% | **Edge:** 8.0% ### Alpha **Analysis:** Ottawa's defensive core is severely compromised with three top defensemen (Sanderson, Zub, Jensen) ruled out. Carolina's top-5 offense is perfectly positioned to exploit this depth crisis and secure a multi-goal victory in an elimination scenario.

**Key Data:**

--- ## 📡 On Our Radar

### Philadelphia vs Atlanta **Side:** Atlanta Braves (Moneyline) | **Edge:** 10.0% **Watching for:** Line moves, injury news, evening promotion