THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins | Boston wins by over 2.5 goals? | 19¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.41u | BOS 1 - BUF 3 |
| 2026-04-23 | New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox | New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs? | 34¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.66u | New York Yankees 4 - Boston Red Sox 2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Philadelphia vs Chicago C | Kyle Schwarber: 1+ home runs | 25¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.12u | Chicago Cubs 8 - Philadelphia Phillies 7 |
| 2026-04-23 | Game 3: Carolina vs. Ottawa | Ottawa Senators Moneyline | 53¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | OTT 1 - CAR 2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Game 3: Colorado vs. Los Angeles | Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals | 37¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.63u | COL 4 - LAK 2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Game 3: Cleveland vs. Toronto | Evan Mobley: 15+ points | 64¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.36u | Cleveland 104 - Toronto 126 |
| 2026-04-23 | Game 3: Cleveland vs. Toronto | James Harden: 20+ points | 57¢ | 2.0u | LOSS | -1.14u | TOR 126 - CLE 104 |
| 2026-04-22 | New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox | Aaron Judge: 1+ home runs? | 24¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.12u | NYY 4 - BOS 1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 30+ points | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | OKC 120 - PHX 107 |
| 2026-04-22 | Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons | Paolo Banchero: 20+ points | 58¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.58u | DET 98 - ORL 83 |
| 2026-04-22 | St. Louis vs Miami | Miami Marlins to win | 56¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.22u | Miami Marlins 4 - St. Louis Cardinals 1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Game 3: Dallas vs. Minnesota | Minnesota Wild to win | 54¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.27u | MIN 3 - DAL 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Game 3: Dallas vs. Minnesota | Minnesota wins by over 1.5 goals | 33¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +1.00u | MIN 3 - DAL 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Game 3: Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia | Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 goals | 31¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +1.03u | PHI 5 - PIT 2 |
| 2026-04-21 | St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins to win by over 1.5 runs | 35¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.35u | Miami Marlins 3 - St. Louis Cardinals 5 |
| 2026-04-21 | Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals to win | 48¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +0.78u | Kansas City Royals 6 - Baltimore Orioles 5 |
| 2026-04-21 | Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs to win | 46¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +0.81u | Chicago Cubs 7 - Philadelphia Phillies 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Houston vs Cleveland | Cleveland wins by over 2.5 runs? | 30¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.70u | Cleveland Guardians 8 - Houston Astros 5 |
| 2026-04-21 | Game 2: Boston vs. Buffalo | Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals? | 38¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.38u | BUF 2 - BOS 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Game 2: Los Angeles vs. Colorado | Game 2: Los Angeles at Colorado Winner? | 71¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.29u | COL 2 - LAK 1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Game 2: Utah vs. Vegas | Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals? | 36¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.64u | VGK 2 - Utah Mammoth 3 |
| 2026-04-21 | Game 2: Philadelphia vs. Boston | Tyrese Maxey: 25+ points | 59¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | PHI 111 - BOS 97 |
| 2026-04-20 | Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays | Sal Stewart: 1+ home runs | 19¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.41u | Cincinnati Reds 6 - Tampa Bay Rays 1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels | Mike Trout: 1+ home runs | 20¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.10u | Toronto Blue Jays 5 - Los Angeles Angels 2 |
| 2026-04-20 | Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays to win | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Tampa Bay Rays 1 - Cincinnati Reds 6 |
| 2026-04-20 | Detroit vs Boston | Dallas Stars to win | — | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-04-20 | Game 2: Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh Penguins to win | 58¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.29u | PIT 0 - PHI 3 |
| 2026-04-20 | Game 2: Ottawa vs. Carolina | Carolina Hurricanes wins by over 1.5 goals | 36¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.64u | CAR 3 - OTT 2 |
| 2026-04-20 | Game 2: Minnesota vs. Dallas | Dallas Stars wins by over 1.5 goals | 34¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.66u | DAL 4 - MIN 2 |
| 2026-04-19 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels | San Diego wins by over 2.5 runs? | 23¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.39u | San Diego Padres 2 - Los Angeles Angels 1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs | Deni Avdija: 25+ points | 43¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.57u | SAS 111 - POR 98 |
| 2026-04-19 | New York M vs Chicago C | Chicago Cubs Moneyline | 55¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.23u | Chicago Cubs 2 - New York Mets 1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Kansas City vs New York Y | Aaron Judge: 1+ home runs | 25¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.38u | Kansas City 0 - New York Y 7 |
| 2026-04-19 | Game 1: Boston vs. Buffalo | Buffalo Sabres -1.5 Spread | 39¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.61u | BUF 4 - BOS 3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Game 1: Phoenix vs. Oklahoma City | Devin Booker: 25+ points | 45¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.68u | Oklahoma City 119 - Phoenix 84 |
| 2026-04-18 | Game 1: Minnesota vs. Dallas | Dallas Stars Moneyline | 53¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.27u | DAL 1 - MIN 6 |
| 2026-04-18 | Game 1: Ottawa vs. Carolina | Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 | 37¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.63u | CAR 2 - OTT 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Game 1: Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 | 36¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.36u | PIT 2 - PHI 3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Game 1: Minnesota vs. Denver | Over 19.5 points | 61¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.92u | DEN 116 - MIN 105 |
| 2026-04-18 | Cincinnati vs Minnesota | Minnesota Twins Moneyline | 56¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.84u | Minnesota Twins 4 - Cincinnati Reds 5 |
| 2026-04-17 | MLB Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox wins by over 1.5 runs? | 36¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.64u | Boston Red Sox 1 - Detroit Tigers 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | MLB San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels (moneyline) | 46¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +0.81u | Los Angeles Angels 8 - San Diego Padres 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Baltimore vs Cleveland | Cleveland Guardians | 56¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.28u | Cleveland Guardians 4 - Baltimore Orioles 6 |
| 2026-04-17 | Texas vs Seattle | Seattle Mariners | 55¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.28u | Seattle Mariners 0 - Texas Rangers 5 |
| 2026-04-17 | Baltimore vs Cleveland | Gunnar Henderson 1+ HR | 17¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.09u | Baltimore 6 - Cleveland 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Texas vs Seattle | Seattle Mariners -1.5 | 35¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.35u | Seattle Mariners 0 - Texas Rangers 5 |
| 2026-04-16 | Seattle vs. Colorado | Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals | 41¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.59u | COL 2 - SEA 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Anaheim vs. Nashville | Nashville Predators to win | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.52u | NSH 4 - ANA 5 |
| 2026-04-16 | Kansas City vs Detroit | Detroit wins by over 1.5 runs | 33¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.67u | Detroit Tigers 10 - Kansas City Royals 9 |
| 2026-04-16 | Kansas City vs Detroit | Detroit Tigers to win | 50¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +0.75u | Detroit Tigers 10 - Kansas City Royals 9 |