NBA
2026-01-12 · Morning Edition
LOSS
Lakers vs. Kings
Lakers -9.5
ANALYSIS
We are backing the Lakers to cover the spread based on their 2nd-ranked Rim Frequency against a Sacramento interior defense that ranks 27th in restricted area EPA and is currently missing anchor Domantas Sabonis (knee). The Kings are severely shorthanded with Sabonis, Keegan Murray, and the suspended Dennis Schroder all unavailable, while the Lakers feature a healthy duo of LeBron James and league-leading scorer Luka Dončić. Given the Lakers' recent 24-point blowout win over this struggling Kings squad, our models project a 12.4-point margin of victory.
Key Data
Rim Frequency: 2nd, Kings Interior EPA: 27th
OUTCOME
Kings 124 - Lakers 112
The Lakers' transition defense collapsed against DeMar DeRozan, who exploited Los Angeles' slow-footed bigs to the tune of 32 points. By forcing LeBron James into high-usage playmaking roles early, the Kings exhausted the Lakers' core, leading to a 4th-quarter defensive surge by Sacramento.