Celtics vs. Nuggets

We are playing the regression against an inflated line following Jokić's 20-rebound outlier, as his 12.5 season average offers mathematical value against Boston’s league-leading defensive rebounding unit (74.4%). The Celtics’ interior length is reinforced by Jaylen Brown’s return and Neemias Queta’s recent 13-rebound form, specifically curbing the second-chance opportunities that drive 'Over' results in high-liquidity markets. With Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson ruled out, Jokić’s increased offensive creation burden and a projected perimeter-oriented pace should keep him below this 13.5 ceiling.