Spurs vs. Clippers

While the market treats San Antonio as a tier-1 juggernaut (77.5% implied), the price overreacts to Kawhi Leonard’s doubtful status while ignoring that the Spurs are also missing key reserves Dylan Harper and Luke Kornet. Our data highlights a significant edge for the Clippers at home, as the professional depth of Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin—who combined for 49 points on Saturday—makes their 22.5% market price a mathematical outlier against our 31% fair win projection.