Penguins vs. Avalanche

Our model identifies a significant value gap at 5.5 as Pittsburgh’s porous defense—allowing 4.1 goals per game in March—faces a Colorado attack that leads the league in scoring at 3.75 G/G. Despite the absence of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins have trended toward high-scoring affairs (66.7% overs recently), and a projected goaltending matchup of Arturs Silovs and Mackenzie Blackwood (.869 SV% in L10) makes this low total unsustainable at Ball Arena.