NBA
TOP PICK
2026-03-18 · Morning Edition
WIN
Warriors vs. Celtics
Gui Santos Under 14.5 Points
ANALYSIS
We are identifying a significant player usage regression trap. While the market has inflated this line following a five-game outlier stretch where Santos cleared 15 points, model projections suggest a regression toward his 6.6 PPG season average. Facing a Celtics defense ranked 1st in the NBA (107.1 PPG allowed), Santos will see reduced volume as Kristaps Porzingis—fresh off a 30-point performance on Monday—and De’Anthony Melton command the primary usage in a shorthanded Warriors offense.
Key Data
Projected 7.4 pts vs 14.5 line; Season mean 4.2 PPG; Opponent DEff 110.2
OUTCOME
Warriors 99 - Celtics 120
Gui Santos scored 13 points in the game on March 18, 2026, which is below the prop line of 14.5. According to official box scores, he finished with 13 points on 5-of-12 shooting from the field and 3-of-3 from the free-throw line.