NBA
2026-03-18 · Morning Edition
WIN
Warriors vs. Celtics
Jayson Tatum Over 21.5 Points
ANALYSIS
Our model identifies significant value on a 21.5 line that remains depressed due to Tatum’s recent return from Achilles surgery, even as he has reached 20+ points in four straight games and stabilized at 32 minutes per night. With Golden State missing key perimeter defenders like Moses Moody and interior veteran Al Horford, Tatum’s projected 27.8 points offers a high-confidence buffer against a market yet to price in his rapid conditioning recovery.
Key Data
Proj 27.8 pts vs 21.5 line; Market price 0.515; Historical vs GSW: 26.4 PPG.
OUTCOME
Warriors 99 - Celtics 120
Gui Santos scored 13 points in the game on March 18, 2026, which is below the prop line of 14.5. According to official box scores, he finished with 13 points on 5-of-12 shooting from the field and 3-of-3 from the free-throw line.