NBA
2026-03-20 · Morning Edition
WIN
Celtics vs. Grizzlies
Ty Jerome Under 19.5 Points
ANALYSIS
Jerome is currently averaging a career-high 20.2 points, including a 21-point performance on March 18, but he faces a regression wall against a Boston defense that ranks #1 in the NBA in points allowed (107.5) as of March 20, 2026. While injuries to Morant, Edey, and KCP have forced Jerome into a primary scoring role, his recent efficiency—averaging over 20 points in fewer than 25 minutes per game—is unsustainable against the perimeter lockdown of Holiday and White. Our model projects Jerome at 14.4 points, anticipating a significant dip in shooting percentage in a game where the Celtics are favored by double digits.
Key Data
Projected 14.4 pts vs line 19.5; Implied market probability of Under (No) is 67.5%.
OUTCOME
Boston Celtics 117 - Memphis Grizzlies 112
Ty Jerome finished the game on March 20, 2026, with 16 points, which is under the set line of 19.5 points. His stat line for the game was 16 points, 7 assists, and 1 rebound in approximately 25 minutes of play.