NBA
2026-03-24 · Evening Edition
WIN
Nuggets vs. Suns
Jamal Murray Over 23.5 Points
ANALYSIS
We are backing Murray to exceed 23.5 points as he enters this matchup in elite form, following a 31-point performance against the Raptors on March 20 where he logged a season-high 40 minutes. With Phoenix missing premier perimeter defenders Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen, Murray is positioned to exploit a shorthanded backcourt while maintaining his historical 24.2 PPG average against the Suns. Given his 25.1 PPG season average and Denver's reliance on his volume in the two-man game, the 31.5% implied probability significantly undervalues his current scoring trajectory.
Key Data
24.2 PPG vs PHX (last 10); Market 31.5% vs Model Fair 40.0%.
OUTCOME
Denver Nuggets 125 - Phoenix Suns 123
Aaron Gordon recorded 6 total rebounds (5 offensive, 1 defensive) in the game against the Phoenix Suns on March 24, 2026. Since 6 is greater than the prop line of 5.5, the bet is a WIN.