NBA
2026-03-27 · Morning Edition
WIN
Heat vs. Cavaliers
Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Points
1.0u
ANALYSIS
We are exploiting a significant pricing inefficiency as Jarrett Allen is upgraded to questionable for today’s rematch following a 10-game injury layoff. Before his absence, Allen averaged 21.4 PPG over a nine-game stretch, thriving as a high-volume roll-man alongside trade-deadline acquisition James Harden. This 10.5-point line sits 2.1 standard deviations below his seasonal median and fails to account for his elite 63.6% field goal efficiency against a Heat defense that frequently pulls Bam Adebayo away from the interior.
Key Data
Averaging 15.8 PPG over last 5 games; 72% FG shooting in restricted area; Miami allowing 48.2 points in the paint.
OUTCOME
Cleveland Cavaliers 149 - Miami Heat 128
Jarrett Allen scored 18 points in his return from injury on March 27, 2026, against the Miami Heat. Since 18 points is greater than the line of 10.5, the prop is a win.