Boston vs. Miami

Our +11.4 adjusted net rating for Boston is reinforced by the confirmed return of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to the starting lineup, solidifying their league-leading efficiency against Miami’s +0.8 rating. Having won all three previous matchups this season, the 2nd-seeded Celtics hold a verified tactical edge over a 9th-seeded Heat squad currently struggling with consistency. This core health update supports our 72% fair win probability, making the 0.66 entry point an inefficient valuation of Boston’s true ceiling.