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NBA TOP PICK 2026-04-04 · Morning Edition WIN

San Antonio vs. Denver

Denver Winner 1.0u
44¢
Entry Price
100¢
Final Price
$541K
Volume
62¢
Fair Price
18.0%
Edge
3:00 PM ET
Tip-off (ET)
+0.56u
P&L
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ANALYSIS

We are fading the market’s overreaction to San Antonio's 11-game win streak, which has drawn over $540k in volume despite Denver's massive efficiency edge (5.4 Net Rating vs -6.2) and 59.2% True Shooting. While Victor Wembanyama returns for the Spurs today, the Nuggets have won seven straight and are hyper-motivated to leapfrog the Lakers for the No. 3 seed following Luka Doncic’s season-ending injury. Our play relies on Nikola Jokic’s current triple-double average to anchor Denver's championship-caliber core against a Spurs roster whose public 'load management' narrative is over-weighted due to the absence of Peyton Watson.
Key Data
DEN NetRtg +5.4 vs SAS -6.2; DEN True Shooting % 59.2 vs SAS 56.4

OUTCOME

Denver Nuggets 136 - San Antonio Spurs 134
Graded from ESPN final score