MLB
SPEC
2026-04-13 · Morning Edition
LOSS
Houston vs Seattle
Yordan Alvarez 2+ Home Runs
0.5u
speculative
ANALYSIS
Based on a Poisson distribution of Alvarez's elite home run rate (0.088) and Seattle's depleted rotation, the fair probability of a multi-HR game is 6%. At a 1% market price, this is a significant mathematical outlier for a premier power hitter.
OUTCOME
Houston Astros 2 - Seattle Mariners 6
Graded from ESPN final score