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MLB SPEC 2026-04-19 · Morning Edition WIN

Kansas City vs New York Y

Aaron Judge: 1+ home runs 0.5u speculative
25¢
Entry Price
100¢
Final Price
$3K
Volume
33¢
Fair Price
8.0%
Edge
1:35 PM ET
First Pitch (ET)
+0.38u
P&L
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ANALYSIS

Judge faces a Royals staff missing Michael Wacha. With a 9.3% HR rate and 4.1 projected plate appearances, the binomial probability of 1+ HR is 33%, offering an 8% edge over the market's 0.25 pricing.

OUTCOME

Kansas City 0 - New York Y 7
Aaron Judge hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the 1st inning off Kansas City starter Cole Ragans. The home run was a 425-foot drive to center field, satisfying the '1+ home runs' prop early in the game.