St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

Our model’s 44% projected probability for a Miami -1.5 cover is strengthened by a significant pitching mismatch, as Cardinals starter Dustin May enters tonight with a 6.98 ERA and a .351 opponent batting average. Following a 5-3 series-opening victory yesterday, the Marlins' superior team ERA (4.01 vs. St. Louis's 4.86) and Chris Paddack's encouraging underlying peripherals suggest a high likelihood of a multi-run win in the pitcher-friendly loanDepot park.