Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Our quantitative model identifies a significant pricing edge by fading Orioles spot-starter Brandon Young, whose perfect 0.00 ERA masks a volatile 5.22 xFIP and a history of allowing high hard-contact rates. While the Red Sox have struggled on the road, they face an Orioles roster missing core pillars Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg, further strained by the late-notice move of Dean Kremer to the IL on April 23 due to a quad strain. We expect the Boston offense to capitalize on Young's regression and a Baltimore bullpen that has been forced into high-usage scenarios due to rotation instability.