THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Clippers vs. Raptors | Raptors Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Clippers 121 - Raptors 117 |
| 2026-01-16 | Sharks vs. Red Wings | Sharks Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Red Wings 4 - Sharks 2 |
| 2026-01-16 | Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Dayton Flyers | Dayton Flyers Moneyline | 94¢ | WIN | +0.06u | Dayton 78 - Loyola Chicago 51 |
| 2026-01-16 | Predators vs. Avalanche | Avalanche -1.5 | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | Predators 7 - Avalanche 3 |
| 2026-01-16 | Panthers vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes Moneyline | 60¢ | WIN | +0.41u | CAR 9 - FLA 1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Pelicans vs. Pacers | Pelicans Moneyline | 40¢ | LOSS | -0.41u | IND 127 - NOP 119 |
| 2026-01-16 | Cavaliers vs. 76ers | Under 237.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | CLE 117 - PHI 115 |
| 2026-01-15 | Celtics vs. Heat | Under 235.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | Celtics 119 - Heat 114 |
| 2026-01-15 | Hornets vs. Lakers | Hornets Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | Hornets 135 - Lakers 117 |
| 2026-01-15 | Stars vs. Utah | Stars vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Over | 30¢ | LOSS | -0.29u | Utah 2 - Stars 1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Canucks vs. Blue Jackets | Canucks ML | 40¢ | LOSS | -0.41u | Blue Jackets 4 - Canucks 1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Jazz vs. Mavericks | Mavericks -2.5 | 43¢ | WIN | +0.57u | Mavericks 144 - Jazz 122 |
| 2026-01-15 | Thunder vs. Rockets | Thunder -4.5 | 48¢ | WIN | +0.52u | Thunder 111 - Rockets 91 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grizzlies vs. Magic | Grizzlies vs. Magic: Under 231.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | Magic 118 - Grizzlies 111 |
| 2026-01-14 | Kraken vs. Devils | Kraken Moneyline (DOG OF THE DAY) | 60¢ | LOSS | -0.60u | Devils 3 - Kraken 2 (OT) |
| 2026-01-14 | Nuggets vs. Mavericks | Mavericks Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Nuggets 118 - Mavericks 109 |
| 2026-01-14 | Cavaliers vs. 76ers | 76ers Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Cavaliers 133 - 76ers 107 |
| 2026-01-14 | Senators vs. Rangers | Rangers Moneyline | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | Senators 8 - Rangers 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Kraken vs. Devils | Devils Moneyline | 60¢ | WIN | +0.40u | Devils 3 - Kraken 2 (OT) |
| 2026-01-14 | Knicks vs. Kings | Knicks Moneyline | 80¢ | LOSS | -0.81u | Kings 112 - Knicks 101 |
| 2026-01-14 | Jazz vs. Bulls | Bulls Moneyline | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | Bulls 128 - Jazz 126 |
| 2026-01-14 | Raptors vs. Pacers | Pascal Siakam: Points Over 23.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.50u | Raptors 115 - Pacers 101 (Siakam: 26 points) |
| 2026-01-13 | Suns vs. Heat | Under 230.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Heat 127 - Suns 121 |
| 2026-01-13 | Timberwolves vs. Bucks | Bucks -2.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Timberwolves 139 - Bucks 106 |
| 2026-01-13 | Canucks vs. Senators | Canucks Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Senators 2 - Canucks 1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Stars vs. Ducks | Ducks +1.5 | 68¢ | WIN | +0.31u | Ducks 3 - Stars 1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Hurricanes Moneyline | 61¢ | LOSS | -0.61u | Blues 3 - Hurricanes 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Canadiens vs. Capitals | Over 5.5 | 60¢ | LOSS | -0.60u | Capitals 3 - Canadiens 2 (OT) |
| 2026-01-13 | Bulls vs. Rockets | Under 225.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | Rockets 119 - Bulls 113 |
| 2026-01-13 | Spurs vs. Thunder | Thunder -7.5 | 49¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Thunder 119 - Spurs 98 |
| 2026-01-12 | 76ers vs. Raptors | Under 221.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | 76ers 115 - Raptors 102 |
| 2026-01-12 | Canucks vs. Canadiens | Canucks Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Canadiens 6 - Canucks 3 |
| 2026-01-12 | Texans vs. Steelers | Texans (-1.5) | — | WIN | +0.50u | Texans 30 - Steelers 6 |
| 2026-01-12 | Oilers vs. Blackhawks | Oilers Moneyline | 62¢ | WIN | +0.39u | Oilers 4 - Blackhawks 1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Lakers vs. Kings | Lakers -9.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.50u | Kings 124 - Lakers 112 |
| 2026-01-12 | Nets vs. Mavericks | Mavericks -3.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | Mavericks 113 - Nets 105 |
| 2026-01-12 | Jazz vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers Moneyline | 84¢ | LOSS | -0.84u | Jazz 123 - Cavaliers 112 |
| 2026-01-11 | Heat vs. Thunder | Over 231.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | Thunder 124 - Heat 118 |
| 2026-01-11 | Chargers vs. Patriots | Chargers Moneyline (Dog of the Day) | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Patriots 16 - Chargers 3 |
| 2026-01-11 | Bucks vs. Nuggets | Over 29.5 Points | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Giannis scored 33 (Final Bucks 112-108) |
| 2026-01-11 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 1H Over 121.5 | 60¢ | LOSS | -0.59u | Timberwolves 104 - Spurs 103 |
| 2026-01-11 | Pelicans vs. Magic | Under 234.5 | 53¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | Pelicans 118 - Magic 128 |
| 2026-01-11 | 49ers vs. Eagles | 49ers Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | 49ers 28 - Eagles 21 |
| 2026-01-11 | Bills vs. Jaguars | Bills -1.5 | 44¢ | WIN | +0.56u | Bills 31 - Jaguars 20 |
| 2026-01-10 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley vs. East Texas AM | UTRGV Moneyline (DOG OF THE DAY) | — | LOSS | -0.50u | East Texas AM 77 - Texas-Rio Grande Valley 69 |
| 2026-01-10 | Packers vs. Bears | Packers Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Bears 31 - Packers 27 |
| 2026-01-10 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Indiana Hoosiers | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | Nebraska 78 - Indiana 75 |
| 2026-01-10 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Indiana Hoosiers | Nebraska Cornhuskers (+4.5) | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | Nebraska 78 - Indiana 75 |
| 2026-01-10 | Rangers vs. Bruins | Over 5.5 | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | Bruins 10 - Rangers 2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Rangers vs. Bruins | Bruins Moneyline | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | Bruins 3 - Rangers 2 |