THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Magic vs. Bucks | Under 221.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | MIL 91 - ORL 130 |
| 2026-03-08 | Knicks vs. Lakers | Julian Champagnie: Rebounds Under 5.5 | 53¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | SAS 145 - HOU 120 |
| 2026-03-08 | Knicks vs. Lakers | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 18.5 Points | 29¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.71u | Knicks 97 - Lakers 110 |
| 2026-03-08 | Knicks vs. Lakers | Josh Hart Over 10.5 Points | 74¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.73u | Lakers 110 - Knicks 97 |
| 2026-03-08 | Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Jayson Tatum Over 16.5 Points | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | BOS 109 - CLE 98 |
| 2026-03-07 | Warriors vs. Thunder | Chet Holmgren: Points Over 16.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Warriors 97 - Thunder 104 |
| 2026-03-07 | Nets vs. Pistons | Tobias Harris: Points Over 12.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | Nets 107 - Pistons 105 |
| 2026-03-07 | Magic vs. Timberwolves | Naz Reid: Points Over 10.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | ORL 119 - MIN 92 |
| 2026-03-07 | Magic vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves -5.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | MIN 92 - ORL 119 |
| 2026-03-07 | Islanders vs. Sharks | Islanders vs. Sharks Under 5.5 | 42¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.58u | NYI 2 - SJS 1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Bucks vs. Jazz | Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 26.5 Points | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | UTA 99 - MIL 113 |
| 2026-03-07 | Bucks vs. Jazz | Giannis Antetokounmpo: Over 9.5 Rebounds | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | UTA 99 - MIL 113 |
| 2026-03-06 | Pacers vs. Lakers | Pacers Moneyline | 20¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.20u | IND 117 - LAL 128 |
| 2026-03-06 | Pacers vs. Lakers | Jaxson Hayes Points Over 9.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.52u | LAL 128 - IND 117 |
| 2026-03-06 | Knicks vs. Nuggets | Karl-Anthony Towns Points Over 17.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | NYK 142 - DEN 103 |
| 2026-03-06 | Heat vs. Hornets | Kon Knueppel Points Over 18.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | Heat 128 - Hornets 120 |
| 2026-03-05 | Senators vs. Flames | Over 5.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | OTT 4 - CGY 1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Pistons vs. Spurs | Keldon Johnson Over 3.5 Rebounds | 58¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | Spurs 121 - Pistons 106 |
| 2026-03-05 | Pistons vs. Spurs | Over 11.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Spurs 121 - Pistons 106 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mavericks vs. Magic | Over 21.5 | 28¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.72u | Magic 115 - Mavericks 114 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lakers vs. Nuggets | Over 29.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | DEN 120 - LAL 113 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lakers vs. Nuggets | Over 237.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.59u | LAL 113 - DEN 120 |
| 2026-03-04 | Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies +7.5 | 39¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.39u | MEM 114 - POR 122 |
| 2026-03-04 | Thunder vs. Knicks | Thunder 1H Moneyline | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | OKC 103 - NYK 100 |
| 2026-03-04 | Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Game Total Over 4.5 | 76¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.24u | TOR 3 - NJD 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Hornets vs. Celtics | Miles Bridges Over 12.5 Points | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.59u | CHA 118 - BOS 89 |
| 2026-03-04 | Hawks vs. Bucks | Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 25.5 Points | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | Hawks 131 - Bucks 113 |
| 2026-03-03 | Wizards Usage Expansion | Bilal Coulibaly Over 10.5 Points | 71¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.71u | ORL 126 - WAS 109 |
| 2026-03-03 | Minnesota Alpha Volume | Julius Randle Over 18.5 Points | 78¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.21u | MIN 117 - MEM 110 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mavericks vs. Hornets | Mavericks +11.5 | 45¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.45u | DAL 90 - CHA 117 |
| 2026-03-02 | Rockets vs. Wizards | Tari Eason: Points Over 14.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.57u | HOU 123 - WAS 118 |
| 2026-03-02 | Rockets vs. Wizards | Amen Thompson: Rebounds Over 7.5 | 64¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.36u | HOU 123 - WAS 118 |
| 2026-03-02 | Nuggets vs. Jazz | Nikola Jokić: Rebounds Over 12.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | Nuggets 128 - Jazz 125 |
| 2026-03-02 | IU Indy Jaguars vs. Cleveland State Vikings | Under 171.5 | 31¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.31u | IU Indianapolis Jaguars 93 - Cleveland State Vikings 101 |
| 2026-03-02 | Coppin State Eagles vs. Howard Bison | Under 136.5 | 29¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.29u | Coppin State Eagles 70 - Howard Bison 90 |
| 2026-03-02 | Celtics vs. Bucks | Bucks +7.5 | 67¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.67u | MIL 81 - BOS 108 |
| 2026-03-02 | Blue Jackets vs. Rangers | Rangers Moneyline | 46¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.46u | Blue Jackets 5 - Rangers 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Blue Jackets vs. Rangers | Over 4.5 Goals | 78¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.22u | CBJ 5 - NYR 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić Points Over 27.5 | 65¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | Timberwolves 117 - Nuggets 108 |
| 2026-03-01 | Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Total | Over 232.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.57u | OKC 100 - DAL 87 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pistons vs. Magic | Magic Moneyline | 34¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.34u | ORL 92 - DET 106 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pistons vs. Magic | Cade Cunningham Points Over 24.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | DET 106 - ORL 92 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pelicans vs. Clippers | Jeremiah Fears Points Over 14.5 | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.34u | Pelicans 117 - Clippers 137 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kings vs. Lakers 1H Total | 1H Over 119.5 | 59¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.59u | Kings 49 - Lakers 64 (1H) |
| 2026-03-01 | Bucks vs. Bulls | Game Total Over 227.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | MIL 97 - CHI 120 |
| 2026-03-01 | 76ers vs. Celtics | Derrick White Over 15.5 Points | 67¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.33u | Celtics 114 - 76ers 98 |
| 2026-02-28 | Trail Blazers vs. Hornets | Hornets Moneyline | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.40u | CHA 109 - POR 93 |
| 2026-02-28 | Rockets vs. Heat | Over 223.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | |
| 2026-02-28 | Raptors vs. Wizards | 1H Spread: Raptors -8.5 | 61¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.61u | Wizards 64 - Raptors 61 (Halftime Score) |
| 2026-02-28 | Penguins vs. Rangers | Rangers Moneyline | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.55u | Texas Rangers 7 - Los Angeles Dodgers 6 |