THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Cooper Flagg Points Over 21.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Mavericks 111 - Pelicans 129 |
| 2026-03-16 | Magic vs. Hawks | Jalen Johnson Points Over 21.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | ORL 112 - ATL 124 |
| 2026-03-15 | Warriors vs. Knicks | 1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | 58¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.58u | Warriors 107 - Knicks 110 |
| 2026-03-15 | Timberwolves vs. Thunder | Over 223.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | MIN 103 - OKC 116 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sharks vs. Senators | Senators Moneyline | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.34u | OTT 7 - SJS 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Jazz vs. Kings | Kings (-2.5) | 49¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | SAC 116 - UTA 111 |
| 2026-03-15 | Jazz vs. Kings | Cody Williams: Points Over 11.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Kings 116 - Jazz 111 |
| 2026-03-14 | Wizards vs. Celtics | Over 227.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | WAS 100 - BOS 111 |
| 2026-03-14 | Nuggets vs. Lakers | Nuggets -2.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | DEN 125 - LAL 127 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kings vs. Clippers | Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Over | 65¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | SAC 118 - LA Clippers 109 |
| 2026-03-14 | Ducks vs. Senators | Over 5.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | ANA 0 - OTT 2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Bucks vs. Hawks | CJ McCollum Over 17.5 Points | 40¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.60u | ATL 122 - MIL 99 |
| 2026-03-14 | Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights | Over 5.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | CHI 0 - VGK 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Utah Tech vs. California Baptist Total | Over 138.5 | 78¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-03-13 | Pelicans vs. Rockets | Over 20.5 | 26¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.74u | HOU 107 - NOP 105 |
| 2026-03-13 | Pelicans vs. Rockets | Rockets Moneyline | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | HOU 107 - NOP 105 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oilers vs. Blues | Oilers Moneyline | 57¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.57u | EDM 2 - STL 3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Knicks vs. Pacers Jalen Brunson Points | Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Knicks 101 - Pacers 92 |
| 2026-03-13 | Kings vs. Islanders | Over 4.5 | 73¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.27u | LAK 3 - NYI 2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Bulls vs. Clippers | Bennedict Mathurin Over 19.5 Points | 67¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.33u | Clippers 119 - Bulls 108 |
| 2026-03-12 | Suns vs. Pacers | Suns -8.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | PHX 123 - IND 108 |
| 2026-03-12 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | Nuggets Moneyline | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | DEN 136 - SAS 131 |
| 2026-03-12 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | Over 234.5 | 58¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.42u | DEN 136 - SAS 131 |
| 2026-03-12 | Bulls vs. Lakers Total Points | Over 231.5 | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.32u | LAL 142 - CHI 130 |
| 2026-03-12 | Bulls vs. Lakers | Over 20.5 | 63¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.37u | Bulls 130 - Lakers 142 |
| 2026-03-12 | Bucks vs. Heat | Over 24.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | MIL 105 - MIA 112 |
| 2026-03-12 | Blue Jackets vs. Panthers | Over 4.5 | 78¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.78u | CBJ 1 - FLA 2 |
| 2026-03-11 | Raptors vs. Pelicans | Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points | 29¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.29u | NOP 122 - TOR 111 |
| 2026-03-11 | Knicks vs. Jazz | Over 229.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | NYK 134 - UTA 117 |
| 2026-03-11 | Knicks vs. Jazz | Landry Shamet: Points Over 9.5 | 66¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.66u | Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 |
| 2026-03-11 | Knicks vs. Jazz | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points | 54¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 |
| 2026-03-11 | Knicks vs. Jazz | Josh Hart Over 7.5 Rebounds | 14¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 |
| 2026-03-11 | Cavaliers vs. Magic | Donovan Mitchell Under 26.5 Points | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.56u | CLE 122 - ORL 128 |
| 2026-03-11 | Capitals vs. Flyers | Flyers Moneyline | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | PHI 4 - WSH 1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wizards vs. Heat Will Riley Rebounds | Will Riley: Rebounds Over 3.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | MIA 150 - WAS 129 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wizards vs. Heat | Bub Carrington Over 3.5 Assists | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Wizards 129 - Heat 150 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wizards vs. Heat | Bub Carrington Over 7.5 Points | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | Heat 150 - Wizards 129 |
| 2026-03-10 | Grizzlies vs. 76ers | 76ers -5.5 | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.56u | PHI 139 - MEM 129 |
| 2026-03-10 | Celtics vs. Spurs Jayson Tatum Points | Jayson Tatum: Points Over 17.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | SAS 125 - BOS 116 |
| 2026-03-10 | Celtics vs. Spurs | Victor Wembanyama Over 10.5 Rebounds | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Celtics 116 - Spurs 125 |
| 2026-03-10 | Blue Jackets vs. Lightning | Over 5.5 Goals | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | CBJ 5 - TBL 2 |
| 2026-03-09 | Warriors vs. Jazz | Kyle Filipowski Over 12.5 Points | 75¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.25u | UTA 119 - GSW 116 |
| 2026-03-09 | Warriors vs. Jazz | Warriors -4.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | GSW 116 - UTA 119 |
| 2026-03-09 | Utah vs. Blackhawks | Utah Moneyline | 64¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.65u | CHI 3 - Utah 2 (OT) |
| 2026-03-09 | Nuggets vs. Thunder | Luguentz Dort Over 8.5 Points | 74¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.73u | OKC 129 - DEN 126 |
| 2026-03-09 | Nuggets vs. Thunder | Thunder -7.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.47u | OKC 129 - DEN 126 |
| 2026-03-09 | Knicks vs. Clippers | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.40u | Clippers 126 - Knicks 118 |
| 2026-03-09 | Knicks vs. Clippers | Darius Garland Over 13.5 Points | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | LA Clippers 126 - NYK 118 |
| 2026-03-08 | Wizards vs. Pelicans | Wizards vs. Pelicans: Over 239.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | WAS 118 - NOP 138 |
| 2026-03-08 | Wild vs. Avalanche | Avalanche Moneyline | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | COL 3 - MIN 2 |