THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Lakers vs. Warriors High-Volume Spot | De'Anthony Melton Over 15.5 Points | 66¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.66u | Lakers 129 - Warriors 101 |
| 2026-02-28 | Capitals vs. Canadiens | Over 4.5 | 80¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.20u | |
| 2026-02-27 | Nets vs. Celtics | Noah Clowney: Points Over 11.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.52u | Nets 111 - Celtics 148 |
| 2026-02-27 | Knicks vs. Bucks | Knicks (-7.5) | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | NYK 127 - MIL 98 |
| 2026-02-27 | Jets vs. Ducks | Over 4.5 | 78¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.21u | WPG 4 - ANA 5 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Cavaliers Moneyline | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | CLE 119 - DET 122 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Jarrett Allen: Points Over 14.5 | 74¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.26u | DET 122 - CLE 119 |
| 2026-02-26 | Timberwolves vs. Clippers | Timberwolves -4.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | MIN 94 - LA Clippers 88 |
| 2026-02-26 | Spurs vs. Nets | Spurs -11.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | SAS 126 - BKN 110 |
| 2026-02-26 | Rockets vs. Magic | Over 24.5 | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.33u | HOU 113 - ORL 108 |
| 2026-02-26 | Kings vs. Mavericks DeRozan Scoring Floor | DeMar DeRozan Over 15.5 Points | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | SAC 130 - DAL 121 |
| 2026-02-26 | Hornets vs. Pacers Retail Fade Opportunity | Miles Bridges Over 16.5 Points | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Hornets 133 - Pacers 109 |
| 2026-02-26 | Heat vs. 76ers | Under 238.5 | 46¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.46u | MIA 117 - PHI 124 |
| 2026-02-26 | Heat vs. 76ers | Over 17.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | PHI 124 - MIA 117 |
| 2026-02-26 | Heat vs. 76ers | Under 27.5 | 72¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.28u | PHI 124 - MIA 117 |
| 2026-02-25 | Thunder vs. Pistons | Pistons -5.5 | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.34u | DET 124 - OKC 116 |
| 2026-02-25 | Spurs vs. Raptors | Spurs Moneyline | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | SAS 110 - TOR 107 |
| 2026-02-25 | Oilers vs. Ducks | Over 5.5 Goals | 65¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | EDM 5 - ANA 6 |
| 2026-02-25 | Celtics vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić Under 13.5 Rebounds | 72¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.28u | DEN 103 - BOS 84 |
| 2026-02-25 | Cavaliers vs. Bucks | Jarrett Allen Over 15.5 Points | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.34u | Bucks 118 - Cavaliers 116 |
| 2026-02-25 | Cavaliers vs. Bucks | Jarrett Allen Over 9.5 Rebounds | 57¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | Cavaliers 116 - Bucks 118 |
| 2026-02-25 | Avalanche vs. Utah | Over 5.5 Goals | 65¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | COL 4 - Utah Mammoth 2 |
| 2026-02-24 | Wizards vs. Hawks | 1H Over 121.5 | 53¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | WAS 98 - ATL 119 |
| 2026-02-24 | Wizards vs. Hawks | Wizards 1H +8.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | WAS 98 - ATL 119 |
| 2026-02-24 | Thunder vs. Raptors | Raptors 1H +0.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | TOR 107 - OKC 116 |
| 2026-02-24 | Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Evan Mobley: Points Over 12.5 | 35¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.35u | Knicks 94 - Cavaliers 109 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kentucky Wildcats vs. South Carolina Gamecocks | South Carolina +6.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | South Carolina Gamecocks 63 - Kentucky Wildcats 72 |
| 2026-02-23 | Spurs vs. Pistons | 1H Under 114.5 | 40¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.60u | Spurs 57 - Pistons 55 (1H) |
| 2026-02-23 | Spurs vs. Pistons | Cade Cunningham Over 25.5 Points | 34¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.34u | Spurs 114 - Pistons 103 |
| 2026-02-23 | Spurs vs. Pistons | Victor Wembanyama Over 22.5 Points | 32¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.32u | Spurs 114 - Pistons 103 |
| 2026-02-23 | Rockets vs. Jazz | Alperen Sengün Over 18.5 Points | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | HOU 125 - UTA 105 |
| 2026-02-23 | Kings vs. Grizzlies | Malik Monk Over 11.5 Points | 44¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.44u | Kings 123 - Grizzlies 114 |
| 2026-02-23 | Jazz vs. Rockets | Keyonte George Over 14.5 Points | 35¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.35u | HOU 125 - UTA 105 |
| 2026-02-23 | CBB Public Total Overreaction | Under 136.5 | 24¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.77u | Kansas 69 - Houston 56 |
| 2026-02-22 | Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Suns Moneyline | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | PHX 77 - POR 92 |
| 2026-02-22 | Knicks vs. Bulls | Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds Over 10.5 | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.56u | Knicks 105 - Bulls 99 |
| 2026-02-22 | Hornets vs. Wizards | Bub Carrington: Points Over 10.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | CHA 129 - WAS 112 |
| 2026-02-22 | Celtics vs. Lakers | LeBron James: Rebounds Over 5.5 | 40¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.40u | BOS 111 - LAL 89 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cavaliers vs. Thunder | Cavaliers -2.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | CLE 113 - OKC 121 |
| 2026-02-22 | 76ers vs. Timberwolves | Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | PHI 135 - MIN 108 |
| 2026-02-21 | South Dakota Coyotes vs. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles | Over 148.5 | 74¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.74u | |
| 2026-02-21 | Rockets vs. Knicks | Over 213.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.40u | |
| 2026-02-21 | Pistons vs. Bulls | Cade Cunningham Over 9.5 Assists | 43¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.57u | Pistons 126 - Bulls 110 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kings vs. Spurs | Victor Wembanyama: Points Over 23.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Spurs 139 - Kings 122 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kings vs. Spurs | Over 226.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | |
| 2026-02-21 | Grizzlies vs. Heat | Heat -8.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | MIA 136 - MEM 120 |
| 2026-02-21 | 76ers vs. Pelicans | VJ Edgecombe Over 16.5 Points | 40¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.40u | 76ers 111 - Pelicans 126 |
| 2026-02-20 | Pacers vs. Wizards | Bub Carrington Over 4.5 Assists | 73¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.27u | WAS 131 - IND 118 |
| 2026-02-20 | Nets vs. Thunder | Nets +15.5 | 43¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.43u | BKN 86 - OKC 105 |
| 2026-02-20 | Mavericks vs. Timberwolves | Over 232.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | DAL 111 - MIN 122 |