THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Jazz vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies -4.5 | 41¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.59u | MEM 123 - UTA 114 |
| 2026-02-20 | Heat vs. Hawks | Over 242.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | MIA 128 - ATL 97 |
| 2026-02-19 | Rockets vs. Hornets | Alperen Sengün: Rebounds Over 8.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | Rockets 105 - Hornets 101 |
| 2026-02-19 | Pistons vs. Knicks | Jalen Brunson: Points Over 26.5 | 32¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.69u | Pistons 126 - Knicks 111 |
| 2026-02-19 | Nets vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers -12.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | CLE 112 - BKN 84 |
| 2026-02-19 | Hawks vs. 76ers | Tyrese Maxey: Points Over 28.5 | 42¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.42u | Hawks 117 - 76ers 107 |
| 2026-02-19 | Celtics vs. Warriors | Celtics -2.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | BOS 121 - GSW 110 |
| 2026-02-18 | North Dakota State Bison vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits | North Dakota State Bison ML | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | North Dakota State Bison 74 - South Dakota State Jackrabbits 66 |
| 2026-02-18 | CBB Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Penn State Nittany Lions | Penn State Nittany Lions Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Penn State Nittany Lions 72 - Rutgers Scarlet Knights 85 |
| 2026-02-17 | Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes | Wisconsin Badgers -1.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Wisconsin Badgers 69 - Ohio State Buckeyes 86 |
| 2026-02-17 | Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes | Miami Hurricanes -8.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Miami Hurricanes 67 - Virginia Tech Hokies 66 |
| 2026-02-17 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | Over 139.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Nebraska Cornhuskers 52 - Iowa Hawkeyes 57 |
| 2026-02-17 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | Iowa Hawkeyes -1.5 | 49¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Iowa Hawkeyes 57 - Nebraska Cornhuskers 52 |
| 2026-02-17 | Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers +2.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.47u | Purdue Boilermakers 80 - Michigan Wolverines 91 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wagner Seahawks vs. LIU Sharks | Under 136.5 | 29¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.29u | Wagner Seahawks 65 - Long Island University Sharks 83 |
| 2026-02-16 | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | Stephen F. Austin -5.5 | 30¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.70u | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 78 - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders 68 |
| 2026-02-16 | Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. East Texas A&M Lions | Over 135.5 | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | East Texas A&M Lions 70 - SE Louisiana Lions 53 |
| 2026-02-16 | Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns vs. Old Dominion Monarchs | Old Dominion Monarchs -5.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Old Dominion Monarchs 83 - Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 72 |
| 2026-02-16 | Coppin State Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs | South Carolina State -5.5 | 34¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.34u | South Carolina State Bulldogs 57 - Coppin State Eagles 59 |
| 2026-02-16 | Colgate Raiders vs. Boston Terriers | Colgate Raiders Moneyline | 36¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.36u | Colgate Raiders 58 - Boston University Terriers 85 |
| 2026-02-16 | Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. Jackson State Tigers | Under 149.5 | 34¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.34u | Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 86 - Jackson State Tigers 91 |
| 2026-02-15 | Team World vs. Team USA Stars | Over 82.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | World 35 - Team Stars 37 |
| 2026-02-15 | Team World vs. Team USA Stars | Team World ML | 62¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.62u | World 35 - Team Stars 37 |
| 2026-02-15 | Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripes | Team USA Stars ML | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Team Stars 37 - World 35 |
| 2026-02-15 | San Francisco Dons vs. San Diego Toreros | San Francisco Dons -4.5 | 32¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.68u | San Francisco Dons 92 - San Diego Toreros 79 |
| 2026-02-15 | Maryland Terrapins vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights | Rutgers Scarlet Knights -2.5 | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | Rutgers Scarlet Knights 68 - Maryland Terrapins 57 |
| 2026-02-15 | IU Indy Jaguars vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | Purdue Fort Wayne -6.5 | 51¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 83 - IU Indianapolis Jaguars 78 |
| 2026-02-14 | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores | Texas A&M ML | 47¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.47u | Texas A&M Aggies 69 - Vanderbilt Commodores 82 |
| 2026-02-14 | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores | Under 165.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Texas A&M Aggies 69 - Vanderbilt Commodores 82 |
| 2026-02-14 | Navy Midshipmen vs. Colgate Raiders | Navy Midshipmen Moneyline | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | Navy Midshipmen 84 - Colgate Raiders 80 |
| 2026-02-14 | Navy Midshipmen vs. Colgate Raiders | Under 139.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.52u | Navy Midshipmen 84 - Colgate Raiders 80 |
| 2026-02-14 | Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones -6.5 | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Iowa State Cyclones 74 - Kansas Jayhawks 56 |
| 2026-02-13 | Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles | Niagara Purple Eagles -2.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.47u | Niagara Purple Eagles 69 - Manhattan Jaspers 76 |
| 2026-02-13 | George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries | George Mason Patriots ML | 49¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | George Mason Patriots 53 - George Washington Revolutionaries 72 |
| 2026-02-12 | William Mary Tribe vs. Northeastern Huskies | — | — | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-12 | Trail Blazers vs. Jazz | Vít Krejčí: Points Over 8.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Trail Blazers 135 - Jazz 119 |
| 2026-02-12 | Memphis Tigers vs. North Texas Mean Green | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | North Texas Mean Green 76 - Memphis Tigers 69 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mavericks vs. Lakers | Naji Marshall: Points Under 18.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | DAL 104 - LAL 124 |
| 2026-02-12 | LIU Sharks vs. Wagner Seahawks | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Long Island University Sharks 67 - Wagner Seahawks 57 |
| 2026-02-12 | High Point Panthers vs. USC Upstate Spartans | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | High Point Panthers 95 - South Carolina Upstate Spartans 70 |
| 2026-02-12 | Bucks vs. Thunder | Bucks +14.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | MIL 110 - OKC 93 |
| 2026-02-11 | Wizards vs. Cavaliers | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | CLE 138 - WAS 113 |
| 2026-02-11 | Virginia Tech vs. Clemson | — | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Clemson Tigers 66 - Virginia Tech Hokies 76 |
| 2026-02-11 | Thunder vs. Suns | Thunder vs. Suns | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Thunder 136 - Suns 109 |
| 2026-02-11 | Pistons vs. Raptors | Raptors Moneyline | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | TOR 95 - DET 113 |
| 2026-02-11 | Pacers vs. Nets | Over 211.5 | 58¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.42u | |
| 2026-02-11 | Knicks vs. 76ers | — | — | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Knicks 138 - 76ers 89 |
| 2026-02-11 | Hawks vs. Hornets | Over 230.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | |
| 2026-02-11 | Clippers vs. Rockets | Rockets 1H Spread -5.5 | 74¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.74u | HOU 102 - LA Clippers 105 |
| 2026-02-11 | Bucks vs. Magic | Magic -9.5 | 53¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | ORL 108 - MIL 116 |