THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | New York vs. Houston | New York Knicks Moneyline | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.60u | NYK 94 - HOU 111 |
| 2026-03-31 | Charlotte vs. Brooklyn | Brooklyn Nets Moneyline | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | BKN 86 - CHA 117 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mavericks vs. Bucks | Over 219.5 | 78¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-03-30 | Maple Leafs vs. Ducks | Anaheim Ducks Moneyline | 64¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.64u | ANA 4 - TOR 5 |
| 2026-03-30 | Celtics vs. Hawks | Atlanta Hawks Moneyline | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | ATL 112 - BOS 102 |
| 2026-03-30 | Boston vs Atlanta | Boston to Win | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | BOS 102 - ATL 112 |
| 2026-03-30 | 76ers vs. Heat | Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | PHI 109 - MIA 119 |
| 2026-03-29 | Rockets vs. Pelicans | Rockets 1H Moneyline | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.32u | HOU 68 - NOP 47 |
| 2026-03-29 | Magic vs. Raptors | Raptors -1.5 (1H) | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | TOR 70 - ORL 43 (Half-time) |
| 2026-03-29 | Celtics vs. Hornets | Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds | 50¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Celtics 114 - Hornets 99 |
| 2026-03-29 | Celtics vs. Hornets | Neemias Queta Over 7.5 Rebounds | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Celtics 114 - Hornets 99 |
| 2026-03-29 | Celtics vs. Hornets | Jayson Tatum Over 21.5 Points | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | BOS 114 - CHA 99 |
| 2026-03-28 | Spurs vs. Bucks | Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 (Over) | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | SAS 127 - MIL 95 |
| 2026-03-28 | Spurs vs. Bucks | Spurs -17.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | SAS 127 - MIL 95 |
| 2026-03-28 | Purdue vs. Arizona | Under 153.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | Purdue Boilermakers 64 - Arizona Wildcats 79 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kraken vs. Sabres | Sabres -1.5 | 42¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.42u | BUF 3 - SEA 2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | Illinois Fighting Illini Moneyline | 74¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.27u | Illinois Fighting Illini 71 - Iowa Hawkeyes 59 |
| 2026-03-28 | Devils vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes Moneyline | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.34u | CAR 5 - NJD 2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wizards vs. Warriors | Kristaps Porzingis Over 17.5 Points | 72¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.28u | Warriors 131 - Wizards 126 |
| 2026-03-27 | Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | Connecticut Huskies Moneyline | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | UConn Huskies 67 - Michigan State Spartans 63 |
| 2026-03-27 | Jazz vs. Nuggets | Jamal Murray Over 3.5 Rebounds | 59¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | DEN 135 - UTA 129 |
| 2026-03-27 | Heat vs. Cavaliers | Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Points | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | CLE 149 - MIA 128 |
| 2026-03-27 | Hawks vs. Celtics | Hawks Moneyline | 36¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.35u | ATL 102 - BOS 109 |
| 2026-03-27 | Hawks vs. Celtics | Onyeka Okongwu Under 2.5 Assists | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | Hawks 102 - Celtics 109 |
| 2026-03-27 | Clippers vs. Pacers | Clippers -8.5 | 53¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | LA Clippers 114 - IND 113 |
| 2026-03-26 | Pelicans vs. Pistons | Ausar Thompson Under 5.5 Rebounds | 64¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.36u | Pistons 129 - Pelicans 108 |
| 2026-03-26 | Kings vs. Magic | Paolo Banchero Under 8.5 Rebounds | 76¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.76u | ORL 121 - SAC 117 |
| 2026-03-26 | Kings vs. Magic | Kings vs. Magic: Over 228.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | SAC 117 - ORL 121 |
| 2026-03-26 | Kings vs. Magic | Paolo Banchero Under 24.5 Points | 66¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.67u | SAC 117 - ORL 121 |
| 2026-03-26 | Illinois vs. Houston | Houston Cougars -2.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Houston Cougars 55 - Illinois Fighting Illini 65 |
| 2026-03-26 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars -3.5 | 46¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.46u | Houston Cougars 55 - Illinois Fighting Illini 65 |
| 2026-03-26 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats | Arkansas vs. Arizona: Under 167.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.57u | Arkansas Razorbacks 88 - Arizona Wildcats 109 |
| 2026-03-25 | Thunder vs. Celtics | Jayson Tatum Over 19.5 Points | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | Thunder 109 - Celtics 119 |
| 2026-03-25 | Thunder vs. Celtics | Luguentz Dort Over 5.5 Points | 65¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | BOS 119 - OKC 109 |
| 2026-03-25 | Heat vs. Cavaliers | Donovan Mitchell Under 29.5 Points | 70¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.30u | MIA 120 - CLE 103 |
| 2026-03-25 | Bulls vs. 76ers | Paul George Over 14.5 Points | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.31u | PHI 157 - CHI 137 |
| 2026-03-25 | Bucks vs. Trail Blazers Ryan Rollins Usage Surge | Ryan Rollins Over 18.5 Points | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Bucks 99 - Trail Blazers 130 |
| 2026-03-25 | Bruins vs. Sabres | Bruins Moneyline | 36¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.65u | BOS 4 - BUF 3 |
| 2026-03-24 | Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane | Wichita State Shockers +4.5 | 14¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.86u | Wichita State Shockers 79 - Tulsa Golden Hurricane 83 |
| 2026-03-24 | Nuggets vs. Suns | Jamal Murray Over 23.5 Points | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.52u | DEN 125 - PHX 123 |
| 2026-03-24 | Nuggets vs. Suns | Nikola Jokić Over 12.5 Rebounds | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | Nuggets 125 - Suns 123 |
| 2026-03-24 | Nuggets vs. Suns | Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 Rebounds | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | DEN 125 - PHX 123 |
| 2026-03-24 | Magic vs. Cavaliers | James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 Yes | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | Cavaliers 136 - Magic 131 |
| 2026-03-24 | Kings vs. Hornets | Kings +16.5 | 34¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.34u | SAC 90 - CHA 134 |
| 2026-03-24 | Kings vs. Hornets | Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5 Over | 66¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.67u | SAC 90 - CHA 134 |
| 2026-03-24 | Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | Hurricanes to Win | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | CAR 2 - MTL 5 |
| 2026-03-24 | Blue Jackets vs. Flyers | Under 5.5 | 45¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.55u | CBJ 3 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-03-24 | Avalanche vs. Penguins | Avalanche vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Over | 67¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.33u | COL 6 - PIT 2 |
| 2026-03-23 | Thunder vs. 76ers | Over 220.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.40u | OKC 123 - PHI 103 |
| 2026-03-23 | Nets vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers -13.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | POR 134 - BKN 99 |