THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | Lakers vs. Pistons | Pistons ML | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | DET 113 - LAL 110 |
| 2026-03-23 | Lakers vs. Pistons | Daniss Jenkins Points Over 13.5 | 64¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | Lakers 110 - Pistons 113 |
| 2026-03-23 | Bucks vs. Clippers | Ryan Rollins Points Over 17.5 | 68¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.68u | LAC 129 - MIL 96 |
| 2026-03-22 | Wizards vs. Knicks | Will Riley: Rebounds Over 3.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-03-22 | Wizards vs. Knicks | Tristan Vukcevic: Assists Over 0.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-03-22 | Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats | Utah State Aggies +11.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Utah State Aggies 66 - Arizona Wildcats 78 |
| 2026-03-22 | Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators | Over 144.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | Iowa Hawkeyes 73 - Florida Gators 72 |
| 2026-03-22 | Blue Jackets vs. Islanders | Over 5.5 | 63¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.63u | CBJ 0 - NYI 1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers | Nebraska Cornhuskers +2.5 | 53¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Nebraska Cornhuskers 74 - Vanderbilt Commodores 72 |
| 2026-03-21 | VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Under 153.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | VCU Rams 55 - Illinois Fighting Illini 76 |
| 2026-03-21 | Thunder vs. Wizards | Wizards +21.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | WAS 111 - OKC 132 |
| 2026-03-21 | Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs -5.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | Gonzaga Bulldogs 68 - Texas Longhorns 74 |
| 2026-03-21 | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougars | Texas A&M Aggies +10.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.47u | Texas A&M Aggies 57 - Houston Cougars 88 |
| 2026-03-21 | Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines -12.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Michigan Wolverines 95 - Saint Louis Billikens 72 |
| 2026-03-21 | Pacers vs. Spurs | Victor Wembanyama Under 25.5 Points | 76¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.24u | Spurs 134 - Pacers 119 |
| 2026-03-21 | Lakers vs. Magic | Under 233.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | LAL 105 - ORL 104 |
| 2026-03-20 | Warriors vs. Pistons | Warriors Moneyline | 32¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.32u | GSW 101 - DET 115 |
| 2026-03-20 | Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | Over 157.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | Hofstra Pride 70 - Alabama Crimson Tide 90 |
| 2026-03-20 | Hawks vs. Rockets | Amen Thompson Under 5.5 Assists | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.32u | Rockets 117 - Hawks 95 |
| 2026-03-20 | Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Ty Jerome Under 19.5 Points | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.32u | BOS 117 - MEM 112 |
| 2026-03-20 | California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas (-13.5) | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | Kansas Jayhawks 68 - California Baptist Lancers 60 |
| 2026-03-20 | Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders | Akron Zips +8.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | Akron Zips 71 - Texas Tech Red Raiders 91 |
| 2026-03-19 | VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels | Over 151.5 | 49¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | VCU Rams 82 - North Carolina Tar Heels 78 |
| 2026-03-19 | Suns vs. Spurs | Devin Vassell: Points Over 11.5 | 65¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | SAS 101 - PHX 100 |
| 2026-03-19 | South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals | Over 163.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | South Florida Bulls 79 - Louisville Cardinals 83 |
| 2026-03-19 | Pistons vs. Wizards | Over 13.5 Points | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | Pistons 117 - Wizards 95 |
| 2026-03-19 | Lakers vs. Heat | Lakers Moneyline | 42¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.57u | LAL 134 - MIA 126 |
| 2026-03-19 | Clippers vs. Pelicans | Brook Lopez: Points Over 10.5 | 74¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.74u | Pelicans 105 - Clippers 99 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cavaliers vs. Bulls | Guerschon Yabusele Over 3.5 Rebounds | 76¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.24u | CLE 115 - CHI 110 |
| 2026-03-19 | 76ers vs. Kings | Over 8.5 Rebounds | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | PHI 139 - SAC 118 |
| 2026-03-18 | Warriors vs. Celtics | Jayson Tatum Over 21.5 Points | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Celtics 120 - Warriors 99 |
| 2026-03-18 | Warriors vs. Celtics | Gui Santos Under 14.5 Points | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Warriors 99 - Celtics 120 |
| 2026-03-18 | Thunder vs. Nets | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 4.5 Rebounds | 51¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | OKC 121 - BKN 92 |
| 2026-03-18 | SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks | SMU Mustangs -6.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | SMU Mustangs 79 - Miami (OH) RedHawks 89 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View AM Panthers | Over 143.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Lehigh Mountain Hawks 55 - Prairie View A&M Panthers 67 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lakers vs. Rockets | Alperen Sengün Over 17.5 Points | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Lakers 124 - Rockets 116 |
| 2026-03-18 | Clippers vs. Pelicans | Over 233.5 | 61¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.61u | LA Clippers 109 - NOP 124 |
| 2026-03-18 | Clippers vs. Pelicans | Zion Williamson Over 21.5 Points | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | NOP 124 - LAC 109 |
| 2026-03-17 | Suns vs. Timberwolves | Julius Randle Over 21.5 Points | 58¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | Timberwolves 116 - Suns 104 |
| 2026-03-17 | Suns vs. Timberwolves | Suns 1H Moneyline | 40¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.40u | Suns 104 - Timberwolves 116 |
| 2026-03-17 | Sharks vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | EDM 5 - SJS 3 |
| 2026-03-17 | Pacers vs. Knicks | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | NYK 136 - IND 110 |
| 2026-03-17 | Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers | Over 139.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | Howard Bison 86 - UMBC Retrievers 83 |
| 2026-03-17 | Heat vs. Hornets | Heat Moneyline | 40¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.40u | MIA 106 - CHA 136 |
| 2026-03-17 | Heat vs. Hornets | LaMelo Ball: Points Over 19.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | Hornets 136 - Heat 106 |
| 2026-03-16 | Trail Blazers vs. Nets | Nets +9.5 | 44¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.43u | BKN 95 - POR 114 |
| 2026-03-16 | Suns vs. Celtics | Jayson Tatum Over 20.5 Points | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | BOS 120 - PHX 112 |
| 2026-03-16 | Spurs vs. Clippers | Clippers Moneyline | 22¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.23u | LA Clippers 115 - SAS 119 |
| 2026-03-16 | Spurs vs. Clippers | Stephon Castle Rebounds Over 4.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | Spurs 119 - Clippers 115 |
| 2026-03-16 | Penguins vs. Avalanche | Penguins vs. Avalanche Over 5.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | PIT 7 - COL 2 |