THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Cincinnati vs Miami | Miami Marlins wins by over 1.5 runs | 37¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.63u | Miami Marlins 8 - Cincinnati Reds 1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Boston vs. New York | Karl-Anthony Towns: 20+ points | 49¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | New York 112 - Boston 106 |
| 2026-04-08 | Washington vs. Toronto | Washington wins by over 1.5 goals | 36¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.64u | WSH 4 - TOR 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Seattle vs Texas | Texas Rangers to win | 47¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | Texas Rangers 3 - Seattle Mariners 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | San Diego vs Pittsburgh | San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs | 37¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.63u | San Diego Padres 8 - Pittsburgh Pirates 2 |
| 2026-04-08 | Buffalo vs. New York R | Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals | 37¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.63u | BUF 5 - NYR 3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Atlanta vs. Cleveland | Cleveland Cavaliers to win | 54¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | CLE 122 - ATL 116 |
| 2026-04-07 | Tampa Bay vs. Ottawa | Ottawa Senators Moneyline | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | OTT 6 - TBL 2 |
| 2026-04-07 | St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 Spread | 36¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.64u | St. Louis Cardinals 7 - Washington Nationals 6 |
| 2026-04-07 | Miami vs. Toronto | Toronto Raptors Moneyline | 53¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +0.70u | TOR 121 - MIA 95 |
| 2026-04-07 | Los Angeles D vs Toronto | Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline | 41¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.41u | Toronto Blue Jays 1 - Los Angeles Dodgers 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Kansas City vs Cleveland | Kansas City Royals -1.5 Spread | 35¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.65u | Kansas City Royals 1 - Cleveland Guardians 2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth | Utah Mammoth Moneyline | 44¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +0.84u | Utah Mammoth 6 - EDM 5 |
| 2026-04-07 | Charlotte vs. Boston | Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds | 54¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.81u | BOS 113 - CHA 102 |
| 2026-04-06 | New York vs. Atlanta | Atlanta Hawks Winner | 53¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | ATL 105 - NYK 108 |
| 2026-04-06 | New York vs. Atlanta | Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 20+ points | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | New York 108 - Atlanta 105 |
| 2026-04-06 | Detroit vs. Orlando | Paolo Banchero: 10+ rebounds | 23¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.12u | ORL 123 - DET 107 |
| 2026-04-06 | Chicago C vs Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay wins by over 2.5 runs | 24¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.38u | Tampa Bay Rays 6 - Chicago Cubs 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Chicago C vs Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs | 33¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.67u | Tampa Bay Rays 6 - Chicago Cubs 4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals | Montreal Canadiens wins by over 1.5 goals | 37¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.37u | New Jersey 3 - Montreal 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Los Angeles L vs. Dallas | Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | LAL 128 - DAL 134 |
| 2026-04-05 | Chicago C vs Cleveland | Cleveland Moneyline | 46¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.46u | Cleveland Guardians 0 - Chicago Cubs 1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Charlotte vs. Minnesota | Minnesota Moneyline | 46¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.46u | MIN 108 - CHA 122 |
| 2026-04-05 | Carolina wins by over 2.5 goals | Carolina Hurricanes wins by over 2.5 goals | 17¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.09u | OTT 6 - CAR 3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Boston vs. Philadelphia | Boston Bruins Moneyline | 44¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.44u | BOS 1 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-04-05 | Baltimore vs Pittsburgh | Baltimore Moneyline | 47¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.47u | Baltimore Orioles 2 - Pittsburgh Pirates 8 |
| 2026-04-05 | Aaron Judge 1 home runs | Aaron Judge: 1+ home runs | 22¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.11u | Miami Marlins 7 - New York Yankees 6 |
| 2026-04-04 | Toronto vs Chicago WS | Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline | 62¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.62u | Toronto Blue Jays 3 - Chicago White Sox 6 |
| 2026-04-04 | San Antonio vs. Denver | Denver Winner | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.56u | DEN 136 - SAS 134 |
| 2026-04-04 | Minnesota vs. Ottawa | MIN Wild Winner | 47¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | MIN 4 - OTT 1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Detroit vs. Philadelphia | Philadelphia Winner | 44¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.44u | PHI 93 - DET 116 |
| 2026-04-04 | Detroit vs. New York R | NYR Rangers Winner | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.56u | NYR 4 - DET 1 |
| 2026-04-03 | St. Louis vs Detroit | Detroit ML | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | Detroit Tigers 4 - St. Louis Cardinals 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Miami vs New York Y | New York Y Moneyline | 63¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.37u | New York Yankees 8 - Miami Marlins 2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Los Angeles D vs Washington | Los Angeles D Moneyline | 71¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.29u | Los Angeles Dodgers 13 - Washington Nationals 6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Indiana vs. Charlotte | Charlotte ML | 91¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.09u | CHA 129 - IND 108 |
| 2026-04-03 | Boston vs. Milwaukee | Boston ML | 93¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.07u | BOS 133 - MIL 101 |
| 2026-04-02 | San Antonio vs. Los Angeles C | San Antonio ML | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | SAS 118 - LA Clippers 99 |
| 2026-04-02 | Phoenix vs. Charlotte | Phoenix ML | 35¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.35u | PHX 107 - CHA 127 |
| 2026-04-02 | Minnesota vs. Detroit | Minnesota ML | 40¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.40u | MIN 108 - DET 113 |
| 2026-04-02 | Buffalo vs. Ottawa | Buffalo ML | 49¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | BUF 1 - OTT 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Atlanta vs Arizona | Arizona ML | 49¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | Arizona Diamondbacks 2 - Atlanta Braves 17 |
| 2026-04-01 | Texas vs Baltimore | Baltimore Moneyline | 53¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Baltimore Orioles 8 - Texas Rangers 3 |
| 2026-04-01 | San Antonio vs. Golden State | Golden State | 12¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.12u | GSW 113 - SAS 127 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cleveland vs Los Angeles D | Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline | 72¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.72u | Los Angeles Dodgers 1 - Cleveland Guardians 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Boston vs. Miami | Boston ML | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.34u | BOS 147 - MIA 129 |
| 2026-04-01 | Atlanta vs. Orlando | Atlanta Moneyline | 63¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.37u | ATL 130 - ORL 101 |
| 2026-03-31 | Texas vs Baltimore | Houston Astros Moneyline | 38¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.62u | |
| 2026-03-31 | Phoenix vs. Orlando | Phoenix Suns Moneyline | 45¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.45u | PHX 111 - ORL 115 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ottawa vs. Florida | Florida Panthers Moneyline | 41¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.59u | FLA 6 - OTT 3 |