THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | 76ers vs. Warriors | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | PHI 113 - GSW 94 |
| 2026-02-02 | Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies | Timberwolves Moneyline | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.52u | MIN 128 - MEM 137 |
| 2026-02-02 | Pelicans vs. Hornets | Pelicans vs. Hornets: Under 235.5 | 58¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.42u | NOP 95 - CHA 102 |
| 2026-02-02 | Pelicans vs. Hornets | Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds Over 9.5 | 58¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.58u | Pelicans 95 - Hornets 102 |
| 2026-02-02 | Canucks vs. Utah | Canucks Moneyline | 28¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.28u | VAN 2 - Utah Mammoth 6 |
| 2026-02-02 | 76ers vs. Clippers | Quentin Grimes: Points Under 9.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | 76ers 128 - Clippers 113 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Canisius Golden Griffins Moneyline | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | Canisius Golden Griffins 63 - Siena Saints 78 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Over 131.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | Siena Saints 78 - Canisius Golden Griffins 63 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Canisius Golden Griffins +8.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | Canisius Golden Griffins 63 - Siena Saints 78 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Under 131.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.52u | Siena Saints 78 - Canisius Golden Griffins 63 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Siena Saints -8.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Siena Saints 78 - Canisius Golden Griffins 63 |
| 2026-02-01 | Orlando Magic vs. San Antonio Spurs | Magic +5.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | ORL 103 - SAS 112 |
| 2026-02-01 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets | Thunder -4.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 121 - DEN 111 |
| 2026-02-01 | Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Oregon Ducks | Iowa Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Iowa Hawkeyes 84 - Oregon Ducks 66 |
| 2026-01-31 | Utah Tech Trailblazers vs. Tarleton State Texans | Tarleton State Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Tarleton State Texans 59 - Utah Tech Trailblazers 65 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kings vs. Flyers | Kings -1.5 | 29¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.29u | LAK 3 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kings vs. Flyers | Kings vs. Flyers Under 5.5 | 49¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | LAK 3 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kings vs. Flyers | Kings Moneyline | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | LAK 3 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-01-31 | Indiana Hoosiers vs. UCLA Bruins | UCLA Bruins Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | UCLA Bruins 97 - Indiana Hoosiers 98 |
| 2026-01-30 | Nets vs. Jazz | Jusuf Nurkić: Points Under 12.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | BKN 109 - UTA 99 |
| 2026-01-30 | Magic vs. Raptors | Paolo Banchero: Points Over 22.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | ORL 130 - TOR 120 |
| 2026-01-30 | Lakers vs. Wizards | Austin Reaves: Points Under 15.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Lakers 142 - Wizards 111 |
| 2026-01-30 | Clippers vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić: Assists Over 7.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Nuggets 122 - Clippers 109 |
| 2026-01-30 | Clippers vs. Nuggets | Kawhi Leonard: Points Under 22.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | Nuggets 109 - Clippers 102 |
| 2026-01-30 | Cavaliers vs. Suns | Donovan Mitchell: Points Over 31.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | PHX 126 - CLE 113 |
| 2026-01-30 | Cavaliers vs. Suns | Jarrett Allen: Points Under 12.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Cavaliers 112 - Suns 110 |
| 2026-01-30 | Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks | Blackhawks +1.5 | 64¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.64u | CHI 2 - CBJ 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Utah vs. Hurricanes | Over 5.5 Goals | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | Southern Utah Thunderbirds 61 - UT Arlington Mavericks 80 |
| 2026-01-29 | Sharks vs. Oilers | Over 6.5 Goals | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | SJS 3 - EDM 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Pistons vs. Suns | Pistons (-4.5) | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | DET 96 - PHX 114 |
| 2026-01-29 | Lipscomb Bisons vs. Jacksonville Dolphins | Lipscomb Bisons Moneyline | 65¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.65u | Lipscomb Bisons 65 - Jacksonville Dolphins 70 |
| 2026-01-29 | Kings vs. 76ers | Russell Westbrook Under 5.5 Assists | 52¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | 76ers 113 - Kings 111 |
| 2026-01-29 | Capitals vs. Red Wings | Over 5.5 Goals | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | WSH 4 - DET 3 |
| 2026-01-29 | Capitals vs. Red Wings | Capitals Moneyline | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | WSH 4 - DET 3 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs | Georgia Bulldogs -0.5 | 74¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.73u | Georgia Bulldogs 85 - Tennessee Volunteers 86 |
| 2026-01-28 | Rangers vs. Islanders | Rangers Moneyline | 42¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.42u | NYR 2 - NYI 5 |
| 2026-01-28 | Magic vs. Heat | Pelle Larsson Under 3.5 Assists | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Magic 133 - Heat 124 |
| 2026-01-28 | Lakers vs. Cavaliers | LeBron James Under 6.5 Rebounds | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.54u | Cavaliers 129 - Lakers 99 |
| 2026-01-28 | Knicks vs. Raptors | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 18.5 Points | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Knicks 119 - Raptors 92 |
| 2026-01-28 | Hornets vs. Grizzlies | Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 19.5 Points | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Hornets 112 - Grizzlies 97 |
| 2026-01-28 | Hawks vs. Celtics | Celtics -5.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | BOS 106 - ATL 117 |
| 2026-01-28 | Bulls vs. Pacers | Ayo Dosunmu Over 12.5 Points | 47¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | Pacers 113 - Bulls 110 |
| 2026-01-27 | Trail Blazers vs. Wizards | Under 233.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | POR 111 - WAS 115 |
| 2026-01-27 | Sharks vs. Canucks | Canucks Moneyline | 46¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.46u | VAN 2 - SJS 5 |
| 2026-01-27 | Pistons vs. Nuggets | Under 24.5 Points | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Pistons 109 - Nuggets 107 |
| 2026-01-27 | Pelicans vs. Thunder | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Thunder 104 - Pelicans 95 |
| 2026-01-27 | Kings vs. Knicks | Under 11.5 Rebounds | 49¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Knicks 103 - Kings 87 |
| 2026-01-27 | Clippers vs. Jazz | Kris Dunn Over 6.5 Points | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Clippers 115 - Jazz 103 |
| 2026-01-27 | Bucks vs. 76ers | Under 220.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | MIL 122 - PHI 139 |
| 2026-01-26 | Warriors vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves -7.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | MIN 108 - GSW 83 |