THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | St. Louis vs. Utah | Utah wins by over 1.5 goals | 30¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.45u | Utah Mammoth 3 - STL 5 |
| 2026-04-15 | Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 1+ home runs | 17¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.09u | Blue Jays 1 - Brewers 2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics | Oakland Athletics to win | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | Athletics 6 - Texas Rangers 5 |
| 2026-04-15 | Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres to win by over 1.5 runs | 33¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.67u | San Diego Padres 7 - Seattle Mariners 6 |
| 2026-04-15 | East Play-In: Orlando vs. Philadelphia | Orlando at Philadelphia Winner? | 54¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.23u | PHI 109 - ORL 97 |
| 2026-04-15 | New York R vs. Tampa Bay | New York R at Tampa Bay Winner? | 52¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.26u | TBL 2 - NYR 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Toronto vs. Ottawa | Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals? | 40¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.60u | OTT 3 - TOR 1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Dallas vs. Buffalo | Dallas at Buffalo Winner? | 49¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | BUF 3 - DAL 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | New York R vs. Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals? | 33¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.49u | TBL 2 - NYR 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers | Montreal at Philadelphia Winner? | 29¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.14u | MTL 2 - PHI 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee wins by over 1.5 runs | 34¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.34u | Milwaukee Brewers 7 - Toronto Blue Jays 9 |
| 2026-04-14 | Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics | A's wins by over 1.5 runs | 32¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +1.02u | Athletics 2 - Texas Rangers 1 |
| 2026-04-14 | New Jersey vs. Boston | Atlanta Braves | — | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-04-14 | Miami vs Atlanta | Atlanta Braves -2.5 runs | 31¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.34u | Atlanta Braves 6 - Miami Marlins 5 |
| 2026-04-14 | New York M vs Los Angeles D | Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs | 25¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.12u | Los Angeles Dodgers 2 - New York Mets 1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Washington vs Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.62u | Pittsburgh Pirates 4 - Washington Nationals 5 |
| 2026-04-13 | Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights | Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals | 39¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.61u | VGK 6 - WPG 2 |
| 2026-04-13 | Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers | Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 goals | 36¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.64u | PHI 3 - CAR 2 |
| 2026-04-13 | Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs | 32¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.48u | St. Louis Cardinals 3 - Cleveland Guardians 9 |
| 2026-04-13 | Miami vs Atlanta | Atlanta Braves Moneyline | 58¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.29u | Atlanta Braves 4 - Miami Marlins 10 |
| 2026-04-13 | Houston vs Seattle | Yordan Alvarez 2+ Home Runs | 1¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.01u | Houston 2 - Seattle 6 |
| 2026-04-13 | Dallas vs. Toronto | Dallas Stars -1.5 Spread | 39¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.61u | DAL 6 - TOR 5 |
| 2026-04-13 | New York R vs. Florida | New York Rangers -1.5 Spread | 32¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +1.02u | NYR 2 - FLA 3 |
| 2026-04-13 | Houston vs Seattle | Houston Astros Moneyline | 40¢ | 2.0u | LOSS | -0.80u | Houston Astros 2 - Seattle Mariners 6 |
| 2026-04-12 | Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils | Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals? | 21¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.40u | OTT 3 - NJD 4 |
| 2026-04-12 | Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs | San Antonio wins by over 11.5 points? | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.56u | SAS 118 - DEN 128 |
| 2026-04-12 | Montreal vs. New York I | Montreal Canadiens wins by over 2.5 goals | 21¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.40u | MTL 4 - NYI 1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Texas vs Los Angeles D | Los Angeles Dodgers wins by over 1.5 runs | 37¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.37u | Los Angeles Dodgers 2 - Texas Rangers 5 |
| 2026-04-12 | Pittsburgh vs. Washington | Washington Capitals wins by over 1.5 goals | 37¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.63u | WSH 3 - PIT 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Boston vs. Columbus | Columbus Blue Jackets wins by over 1.5 goals | 34¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.66u | CBJ 2 - BOS 3 |
| 2026-04-12 | Texas vs Los Angeles D | Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline | 55¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.82u | Los Angeles Dodgers 2 - Texas Rangers 5 |
| 2026-04-11 | Carolina Hurricanes at Utah Mammoth | Utah Mammoth to win by over 1.5 goals | 7¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.04u | Utah Mammoth 1 - CAR 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners to win by over 1.5 runs | 40¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.60u | Seattle Mariners 8 - Houston Astros 7 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tampa Bay vs. Boston | Tampa Bay Lightning to win by over 2.5 goals | 22¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.39u | TBL 2 - BOS 1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Miami vs Detroit | Detroit Tigers to win by over 1.5 runs | 38¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.62u | Detroit Tigers 6 - Miami Marlins 1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Vegas vs. Colorado | Colorado Avalanche to win by over 1.5 goals | 35¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.65u | COL 2 - VGK 3 |
| 2026-04-11 | Washington vs. Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh Penguins to win by over 1.5 goals | 33¢ | 1.5u | LOSS | -0.49u | PIT 3 - WSH 6 |
| 2026-04-11 | Arizona vs Philadelphia | Philadelphia Phillies to win | 46¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +0.81u | Philadelphia Phillies 4 - Arizona Diamondbacks 3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks | Jalen Brunson: 25+ points | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | TOR 95 - NYK 112 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs | De'Aaron Fox: 15+ points | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.34u | SAS 139 - DAL 120 |
| 2026-04-10 | Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks | Karl-Anthony Towns: 20+ points | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.56u | NYK 112 - TOR 95 |
| 2026-04-10 | Pittsburgh vs Chicago C | Chicago C wins by over 1.5 runs? | 40¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.20u | Chicago Cubs 0 - Pittsburgh Pirates 2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Pittsburgh vs Chicago C | Chicago C wins by over 2.5 runs? | 29¢ | 0.5u | WIN | +0.35u | Chicago Cubs 0 - Pittsburgh Pirates 2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Cleveland vs Atlanta | Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs? | 38¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.62u | Atlanta Braves 11 - Cleveland Guardians 5 |
| 2026-04-09 | Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken | Vegas Golden Knights wins by over 1.5 goals | 41¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.59u | VGK 3 - SEA 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings | Detroit Red Wings to win | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | DET 6 - PHI 3 |
| 2026-04-09 | Minnesota vs. Dallas | Dallas Stars to win | 54¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | DAL 5 - MIN 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Minnesota vs. Dallas | Dallas Stars wins by over 1.5 goals | 32¢ | 1.5u | WIN | +1.02u | DAL 5 - MIN 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Jarace Walker 6 rebounds | Jarace Walker: 6+ rebounds | 59¢ | 2.0u | WIN | +0.82u | IND 123 - BKN 94 |
| 2026-04-09 | Cincinnati vs Miami | Elly De La Cruz: 1+ home runs | 14¢ | 0.5u | LOSS | -0.07u | Miami Marlins 8 - Cincinnati Reds 1 |