THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers | Over 29.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.49u | Cavaliers 110 - Timberwolves 102 |
| 2026-01-09 | Clippers vs. Nets | Nets +2.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Clippers 115 - Nets 102 |
| 2026-01-09 | Kings vs. Jets | Jets (+1.5) | 46¢ | WIN | +0.53u | Jets 4 - Kings 2 |
| 2026-01-09 | Thunder vs. Grizzlies | Thunder -3.5 | 57¢ | LOSS | -0.57u | Thunder 117 - Grizzlies 116 |
| 2026-01-09 | Pelicans vs. Wizards | Pelicans -1.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.50u | Pelicans 116 - Wizards 112 |
| 2026-01-09 | Raptors vs. Celtics | Celtics -7.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | Celtics 120 - Raptors 104 |
| 2026-01-09 | Oregon vs. Indiana | Indiana Moneyline | 62¢ | WIN | +0.39u | Indiana 56 - Oregon 22 |
| 2026-01-08 | Canucks vs. Red Wings | Canucks Moneyline | 42¢ | LOSS | -0.42u | Red Wings 5 - Canucks 1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Pacers vs. Hornets | Hornets -4.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.50u | Pacers 122 - Hornets 111 |
| 2026-01-08 | Sabres vs. Rangers | Sabres Moneyline | 54¢ | WIN | +0.46u | Sabres 5 - Rangers 2 |
| 2026-01-08 | Wild vs. Kraken | Wild Moneyline | 60¢ | WIN | +0.41u | Wild 3 - Kraken 1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Mavericks vs. Jazz | Over 236.5 | 60¢ | LOSS | -0.60u | Jazz 116 - Mavericks 114 |
| 2026-01-08 | Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves | Cavaliers +4.5 | 57¢ | LOSS | -0.57u | Cavaliers 122 - Timberwolves 131 |
| 2026-01-08 | Heat vs. Bulls | Heat -5.5 | 55¢ | PUSH | +0.00u | Postponed |
| 2026-01-08 | Miami vs. Ole Miss | Miami Moneyline | 62¢ | WIN | +0.39u | Miami 27 - Ole Miss 24 |
| 2026-01-07 | Belmont Bruins vs. Northern Iowa | Belmont Bruins Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | Belmont 78 - Northern Iowa 65 |
| 2026-01-07 | Bucks vs. Warriors | Warriors (-5.5) | — | WIN | +0.50u | Warriors 118 - Bucks 109 |
| 2026-01-07 | Pelicans vs. Hawks | Over 245.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Hawks 117 - Pelicans 100 |
| 2026-01-07 | Sharks vs. Kings | Sharks +1.5 | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | SJS 4 - LAK 3 |
| 2026-01-07 | Stars vs. Capitals | Over 5.5 | 58¢ | LOSS | -0.58u | DAL 4 - WSH 1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Jazz vs. Thunder | Over 238.5 | 60¢ | WIN | +0.41u | Thunder 141 - Jazz 105 |
| 2026-01-07 | Jazz vs. Thunder | Thunder (-17.5) | 60¢ | LOSS | -0.59u | Thunder 129 - Jazz 125 |
| 2026-01-07 | Raptors vs. Hornets | Raptors 1H Moneyline | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | Raptors 97 - Hornets 96 |
| 2026-01-06 | Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Cavaliers -4.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Cavaliers 120 - Pacers 116 |
| 2026-01-06 | Heat vs. Timberwolves | Heat +4.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Timberwolves 112 - Heat 98 |
| 2026-01-06 | Canucks vs. Sabres | Canucks Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | BUF 5 - VAN 3 |
| 2026-01-06 | Bruins vs. Kraken | Kraken (+1.5) | 46¢ | WIN | +0.53u | SEA 7 - BOS 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Golden Knights vs. Jets | Jets (+1.5) | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Jets 3 - Golden Knights 2 |
| 2026-01-06 | Avalanche vs. Lightning | Avalanche (+1.5) | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | Lightning 4 - Avalanche 2 |
| 2026-01-06 | Lakers vs. Pelicans | LeBron James: Points Over 22.5 | 46¢ | WIN | +0.54u | Lakers 115 - Pelicans 110 |
| 2026-01-06 | Magic vs. Wizards | Magic -8.5 | 44¢ | LOSS | -0.44u | ORL 112 - WAS 120 |
| 2026-01-05 | Jazz vs. Trail Blazers | Lauri Markkanen: Points Over 26.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Jazz 110 - Trail Blazers 105 |
| 2026-01-05 | Ducks vs. Capitals | Ducks Moneyline (DOG OF THE DAY) | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Capitals 5 - Ducks 2 |
| 2026-01-05 | Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors -2.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Clippers 115 - Warriors 112 |
| 2026-01-05 | Wild vs. Kings | Wild +1.5 | 72¢ | LOSS | -0.72u | Kings 4 - Wild 1 |
| 2026-01-05 | Red Wings vs. Senators | Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 Over | 42¢ | WIN | +0.57u | Red Wings 4 - Senators 2 |
| 2026-01-05 | Nuggets vs. 76ers | 76ers -9.5 | 59¢ | LOSS | -0.59u | DEN 125 - PHI 124 |
| 2026-01-05 | Hornets vs. Thunder | Thunder -16.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.47u | Hornets 124 - Thunder 97 |
| 2026-01-05 | Suns vs. Rockets | Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5 Over | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | Suns 97 - Rockets 100 |
| 2026-01-04 | Bucks vs. Kings | Bucks Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | Bucks 115 - Kings 98 |
| 2026-01-04 | Ravens vs. Steelers | Steelers +3.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | Steelers 26 - Ravens 24 |
| 2026-01-04 | Grizzlies vs. Lakers | Lakers -3.5 | 57¢ | WIN | +0.43u | Lakers 120 - Grizzlies 114 |
| 2026-01-04 | Nuggets vs. Nets | Over 218.5 | 62¢ | WIN | +0.39u | Nets 127 - Nuggets 115 |
| 2026-01-04 | Commanders vs. Eagles | Commanders +9.5 | 67¢ | WIN | +0.33u | Commanders 24 - Eagles 17 |
| 2026-01-04 | Dolphins vs. Patriots | Patriots Moneyline | 86¢ | WIN | +0.15u | Patriots 38 - Dolphins 10 |
| 2026-01-04 | Packers vs. Vikings | Under 44.5 | 76¢ | WIN | +0.24u | Vikings 16 - Packers 3 |