THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Pacers vs. Knicks | O/U 223.5 Over | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | IND 137 - NYK 134 |
| 2026-02-10 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanes | Miami ML | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Miami Hurricanes 75 - North Carolina Tar Heels 66 |
| 2026-02-10 | Houston Cougars vs. Utah Utes | Houston Cougars -16.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | Houston Cougars 66 - Utah Utes 52 |
| 2026-02-10 | Clippers vs. Rockets | Rockets -7.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | HOU 102 - LA Clippers 95 |
| 2026-02-09 | Navy Midshipmen vs. Bucknell Bison | Navy vs. Bucknell: Over 134.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.40u | Navy Midshipmen 76 - Bucknell Bison 60 |
| 2026-02-09 | Kings vs. Pelicans | Domantas Sabonis: Points Under 14.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Kings 94 - Pelicans 120 |
| 2026-02-09 | Hawks vs. Timberwolves | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | MIN 138 - ATL 116 |
| 2026-02-09 | Cavaliers vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić: Points Under 28.5 | 45¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.55u | CLE 119 - DEN 117 |
| 2026-02-09 | Bucks vs. Magic | Bucks +8.5 | 43¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.43u | MIL 99 - ORL 118 |
| 2026-02-09 | 76ers vs. Trail Blazers | Deni Avdija: Points Under 21.5 | 49¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | 76ers 118 - Trail Blazers 135 |
| 2026-02-08 | Seattle vs. New England | Seahawks Team Total: Over 17.5 | 76¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.23u | Seattle Seahawks 29 - New England Patriots 13 |
| 2026-02-08 | Seahawks vs. Patriots Under 45.5 | Seahawks vs. Patriots Under 45.5 | — | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-08 | Seahawks vs. Patriots 1H Spread | — | — | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-08 | Seahawks Team Total Over 17.5 | Seahawks Team Total Over 17.5 | — | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-08 | Pacers vs. Raptors | Pacers +8.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | IND 104 - TOR 122 |
| 2026-02-08 | Knicks vs. Celtics | Josh Hart Under 4.5 Assists | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | Knicks 111 - Celtics 89 |
| 2026-02-08 | Heat vs. Wizards | Alexandre Sarr Under 16.5 Points | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Heat 132 - Wizards 101 |
| 2026-02-08 | Clippers vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves Moneyline | 74¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.73u | MIN 96 - LA Clippers 115 |
| 2026-02-07 | Warriors vs. Lakers | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | GSW 99 - LAL 105 |
| 2026-02-07 | Seton Hall vs. Creighton | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Seton Hall Pirates 68 - Creighton Bluejays 69 |
| 2026-02-07 | Nuggets vs. Bulls | Nuggets vs. Bulls: Over 228.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.38u | DEN 136 - CHI 120 |
| 2026-02-07 | Nuggets vs. Bulls | Nuggets -4.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | DEN 136 - CHI 120 |
| 2026-02-07 | Jazz vs. Magic | Magic Moneyline | 72¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.28u | ORL 120 - UTA 117 |
| 2026-02-07 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs | Arkansas Razorbacks Moneyline | 72¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.28u | Arkansas Razorbacks 88 - Mississippi State Bulldogs 68 |
| 2026-02-07 | 76ers vs. Suns | Joel Embiid: Points Over 27.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | 76ers 109 - Suns 103 |
| 2026-02-06 | Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | Julius Randle: Under 21.5 Points | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | NOP 119 - MIN 115 |
| 2026-02-06 | Pacers vs. Bucks | Bobby Portis: Under 14.5 Points | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | MIL 105 - IND 99 |
| 2026-02-06 | Heat vs. Celtics | Andrew Wiggins: Under 5.5 Rebounds | 51¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | BOS 98 - MIA 96 |
| 2026-02-06 | Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams | VCU Rams Moneyline | 75¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.25u | VCU Rams 99 - Dayton Flyers 73 |
| 2026-02-06 | Clippers vs. Kings | Kings Moneyline | 38¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.39u | SAC 111 - LA Clippers 114 |
| 2026-02-06 | Belmont Bruins vs. UIC Flames | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Belmont Bruins 68 - UIC Flames 62 |
| 2026-02-05 | Wizards vs. Pistons | Cade Cunningham: Under 24.5 Points | 46¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.46u | Wizards 126 - Pistons 117 |
| 2026-02-05 | Jazz vs. Hawks | Over 237.5 | 63¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.37u | UTA 119 - ATL 121 |
| 2026-02-05 | Islanders vs. Devils | Devils +1.5 | 73¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.73u | NJD 1 - NYI 3 |
| 2026-02-05 | Elon Phoenix vs. Hampton Pirates | Hampton Pirates Moneyline | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.55u | Hampton Pirates 87 - Elon Phoenix 79 |
| 2026-02-05 | 76ers vs. Lakers | Joel Embiid: Under 28.5 Points | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Lakers 119 - 76ers 115 |
| 2026-02-04 | Wild vs. Predators | Predators Moneyline | 46¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.46u | NSH 5 - MIN 6 |
| 2026-02-04 | Sharks vs. Avalanche | Avalanche -1.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | COL 4 - SJS 2 |
| 2026-02-04 | San Jose Sharks vs. Colorado Avalanche | — | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | COL 4 - SJS 2 |
| 2026-02-04 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 106 - SAS 116 |
| 2026-02-04 | Nuggets vs. Knicks | Knicks -5.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | NYK 134 - DEN 127 |
| 2026-02-04 | Grizzlies vs. Kings | Under 230.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.56u | MEM 129 - SAC 125 |
| 2026-02-04 | Denver Nuggets vs. New York Knicks | — | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | DEN 127 - NYK 134 |
| 2026-02-04 | Celtics vs. Rockets | Rockets Moneyline | 66¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.66u | HOU 93 - BOS 114 |
| 2026-02-03 | Senators vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes Moneyline | 64¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | CAR 4 - OTT 3 |
| 2026-02-03 | Nevada vs. Boise State | — | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Nevada Wolf Pack 87 - Boise State Broncos 91 |
| 2026-02-03 | Maple Leafs vs. Oilers | Under 6.5 | 44¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.45u | TOR 5 - EDM 2 |
| 2026-02-03 | Maple Leafs vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 64¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.64u | EDM 2 - TOR 5 |
| 2026-02-03 | Magic vs. Thunder | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points Under 31.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Thunder 110 - Magic 104 |
| 2026-02-03 | Jazz vs. Pacers | Bennedict Mathurin: Points Over 15.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Jazz 131 - Pacers 122 |