THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Pistons vs. Wizards | Over 13.5 Points | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | Pistons 117 - Wizards 95 |
| 2026-03-18 | Clippers vs. Pelicans | Over 233.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | LA Clippers 109 - NOP 124 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View AM Panthers | Over 143.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Lehigh Mountain Hawks 55 - Prairie View A&M Panthers 67 |
| 2026-03-18 | SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks | SMU Mustangs -6.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | SMU Mustangs 79 - Miami (OH) RedHawks 89 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lakers vs. Rockets | Alperen Sengün Over 17.5 Points | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Lakers 124 - Rockets 116 |
| 2026-03-18 | Clippers vs. Pelicans | Zion Williamson Over 21.5 Points | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | NOP 124 - LAC 109 |
| 2026-03-18 | Thunder vs. Nets | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 4.5 Rebounds | 51¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | OKC 121 - BKN 92 |
| 2026-03-18 | Warriors vs. Celtics | Jayson Tatum Over 21.5 Points | 50¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Celtics 120 - Warriors 99 |
| 2026-03-18 | Warriors vs. Celtics | Gui Santos Under 14.5 Points | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Warriors 99 - Celtics 120 |
| 2026-03-17 | Pacers vs. Knicks | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | NYK 136 - IND 110 |
| 2026-03-17 | Suns vs. Timberwolves | Julius Randle Over 21.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Timberwolves 116 - Suns 104 |
| 2026-03-17 | Sharks vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 60¢ | WIN | +0.41u | EDM 5 - SJS 3 |
| 2026-03-17 | Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers | Over 139.5 | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | Howard Bison 86 - UMBC Retrievers 83 |
| 2026-03-17 | Suns vs. Timberwolves | Suns 1H Moneyline | 53¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | Suns 104 - Timberwolves 116 |
| 2026-03-17 | Heat vs. Hornets | Heat Moneyline | 40¢ | LOSS | -0.40u | MIA 106 - CHA 136 |
| 2026-03-17 | Heat vs. Hornets | LaMelo Ball: Points Over 19.5 | 57¢ | WIN | +0.43u | Hornets 136 - Heat 106 |
| 2026-03-16 | Trail Blazers vs. Nets | Nets +9.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | BKN 95 - POR 114 |
| 2026-03-16 | Suns vs. Celtics | Jayson Tatum Over 20.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | BOS 120 - PHX 112 |
| 2026-03-16 | Penguins vs. Avalanche | Penguins vs. Avalanche Over 5.5 | 62¢ | WIN | +0.39u | PIT 7 - COL 2 |
| 2026-03-16 | Spurs vs. Clippers | Clippers Moneyline | 22¢ | LOSS | -0.23u | LA Clippers 115 - SAS 119 |
| 2026-03-16 | Spurs vs. Clippers | Stephon Castle Rebounds Over 4.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | Spurs 119 - Clippers 115 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Cooper Flagg Points Over 21.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | Mavericks 111 - Pelicans 129 |
| 2026-03-16 | Magic vs. Hawks | Jalen Johnson Points Over 21.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | ORL 112 - ATL 124 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sharks vs. Senators | Senators Moneyline | 66¢ | WIN | +0.34u | OTT 7 - SJS 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Jazz vs. Kings | Kings (-2.5) | 49¢ | WIN | +0.51u | SAC 116 - UTA 111 |
| 2026-03-15 | Jazz vs. Kings | Cody Williams: Points Over 11.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | Kings 116 - Jazz 111 |
| 2026-03-15 | Warriors vs. Knicks | 1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | 58¢ | LOSS | -0.58u | Warriors 107 - Knicks 110 |
| 2026-03-15 | Timberwolves vs. Thunder | Over 223.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | MIN 103 - OKC 116 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kings vs. Clippers | Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Over | — | WIN | +0.50u | SAC 118 - LA Clippers 109 |
| 2026-03-14 | Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights | Over 5.5 | 56¢ | LOSS | -0.56u | CHI 0 - VGK 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Ducks vs. Senators | Over 5.5 | 56¢ | LOSS | -0.56u | ANA 0 - OTT 2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Nuggets vs. Lakers | Nuggets -2.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | DEN 125 - LAL 127 |
| 2026-03-14 | Wizards vs. Celtics | Over 227.5 | 56¢ | LOSS | -0.56u | WAS 100 - BOS 111 |
| 2026-03-14 | Bucks vs. Hawks | CJ McCollum Over 17.5 Points | 40¢ | WIN | +0.60u | ATL 122 - MIL 99 |
| 2026-03-13 | Utah Tech vs. California Baptist Total | Over 138.5 | — | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-03-13 | Knicks vs. Pacers Jalen Brunson Points | Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Knicks 101 - Pacers 92 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oilers vs. Blues | Oilers Moneyline | 57¢ | LOSS | -0.57u | EDM 2 - STL 3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Kings vs. Islanders | Over 4.5 | 73¢ | WIN | +0.27u | LAK 3 - NYI 2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Bulls vs. Clippers | Bennedict Mathurin Over 19.5 Points | 67¢ | WIN | +0.33u | Clippers 119 - Bulls 108 |
| 2026-03-13 | Pelicans vs. Rockets | Over 20.5 | 26¢ | WIN | +0.74u | HOU 107 - NOP 105 |
| 2026-03-13 | Pelicans vs. Rockets | Rockets Moneyline | 70¢ | WIN | +0.30u | HOU 107 - NOP 105 |
| 2026-03-12 | Bulls vs. Lakers Total Points | Over 231.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | LAL 142 - CHI 130 |
| 2026-03-12 | Bulls vs. Lakers | Over 20.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | Bulls 130 - Lakers 142 |
| 2026-03-12 | Blue Jackets vs. Panthers | Over 4.5 | 78¢ | LOSS | -0.78u | CBJ 1 - FLA 2 |
| 2026-03-12 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | Nuggets Moneyline | 32¢ | WIN | +0.68u | DEN 136 - SAS 131 |
| 2026-03-12 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | Over 234.5 | 58¢ | WIN | +0.42u | DEN 136 - SAS 131 |
| 2026-03-12 | Bucks vs. Heat | Over 24.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | MIL 105 - MIA 112 |
| 2026-03-12 | Suns vs. Pacers | Suns -8.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | PHX 123 - IND 108 |
| 2026-03-11 | Knicks vs. Jazz | Over 229.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | NYK 134 - UTA 117 |
| 2026-03-11 | Knicks vs. Jazz | Landry Shamet: Points Over 9.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 |