THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Capitals vs. Flyers | Flyers Moneyline | 46¢ | WIN | +0.53u | PHI 4 - WSH 1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Knicks vs. Jazz | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points | 54¢ | WIN | +0.46u | Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 |
| 2026-03-11 | Knicks vs. Jazz | Josh Hart Over 7.5 Rebounds | 14¢ | PUSH | +0.00u | Knicks 134 - Jazz 117 |
| 2026-03-11 | Raptors vs. Pelicans | Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points | 29¢ | LOSS | -0.29u | NOP 122 - TOR 111 |
| 2026-03-11 | Cavaliers vs. Magic | Donovan Mitchell Under 26.5 Points | 44¢ | WIN | +0.56u | CLE 122 - ORL 128 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wizards vs. Heat Will Riley Rebounds | Will Riley: Rebounds Over 3.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | MIA 150 - WAS 129 |
| 2026-03-10 | Celtics vs. Spurs Jayson Tatum Points | Jayson Tatum: Points Over 17.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | SAS 125 - BOS 116 |
| 2026-03-10 | Blue Jackets vs. Lightning | Over 5.5 Goals | 62¢ | WIN | +0.38u | CBJ 5 - TBL 2 |
| 2026-03-10 | Celtics vs. Spurs | Victor Wembanyama Over 10.5 Rebounds | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Celtics 116 - Spurs 125 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wizards vs. Heat | Bub Carrington Over 3.5 Assists | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Wizards 129 - Heat 150 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wizards vs. Heat | Bub Carrington Over 7.5 Points | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | Heat 150 - Wizards 129 |
| 2026-03-10 | Grizzlies vs. 76ers | 76ers -5.5 | 44¢ | WIN | +0.56u | PHI 139 - MEM 129 |
| 2026-03-09 | Nuggets vs. Thunder | Luguentz Dort Over 8.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 129 - DEN 126 |
| 2026-03-09 | Warriors vs. Jazz | Kyle Filipowski Over 12.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | UTA 119 - GSW 116 |
| 2026-03-09 | Utah vs. Blackhawks | Utah Moneyline | 64¢ | LOSS | -0.65u | CHI 3 - Utah 2 (OT) |
| 2026-03-09 | Knicks vs. Clippers | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds | 60¢ | WIN | +0.40u | Clippers 126 - Knicks 118 |
| 2026-03-09 | Knicks vs. Clippers | Darius Garland Over 13.5 Points | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | LA Clippers 126 - NYK 118 |
| 2026-03-09 | Warriors vs. Jazz | Warriors -4.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | GSW 116 - UTA 119 |
| 2026-03-09 | Nuggets vs. Thunder | Thunder -7.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.47u | OKC 129 - DEN 126 |
| 2026-03-08 | Knicks vs. Lakers | Julian Champagnie: Rebounds Under 5.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | SAS 145 - HOU 120 |
| 2026-03-08 | Magic vs. Bucks | Under 221.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | MIL 91 - ORL 130 |
| 2026-03-08 | Wild vs. Avalanche | Avalanche Moneyline | 62¢ | WIN | +0.38u | COL 3 - MIN 2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Wizards vs. Pelicans | Wizards vs. Pelicans: Over 239.5 | 57¢ | WIN | +0.43u | WAS 118 - NOP 138 |
| 2026-03-08 | Knicks vs. Lakers | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 18.5 Points | 29¢ | WIN | +0.71u | Knicks 97 - Lakers 110 |
| 2026-03-08 | Knicks vs. Lakers | Josh Hart Over 10.5 Points | 74¢ | LOSS | -0.73u | Lakers 110 - Knicks 97 |
| 2026-03-08 | Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Jayson Tatum Over 16.5 Points | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | BOS 109 - CLE 98 |
| 2026-03-07 | Bucks vs. Jazz | Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 26.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | UTA 99 - MIL 113 |
| 2026-03-07 | Bucks vs. Jazz | Giannis Antetokounmpo: Over 9.5 Rebounds | — | LOSS | -0.50u | UTA 99 - MIL 113 |
| 2026-03-07 | Islanders vs. Sharks | Islanders vs. Sharks Under 5.5 | 42¢ | WIN | +0.58u | NYI 2 - SJS 1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Warriors vs. Thunder | Chet Holmgren: Points Over 16.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | Warriors 97 - Thunder 104 |
| 2026-03-07 | Nets vs. Pistons | Tobias Harris: Points Over 12.5 | 60¢ | WIN | +0.41u | Nets 107 - Pistons 105 |
| 2026-03-07 | Magic vs. Timberwolves | Naz Reid: Points Over 10.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.49u | ORL 119 - MIN 92 |
| 2026-03-07 | Magic vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves -5.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | MIN 92 - ORL 119 |
| 2026-03-06 | Pacers vs. Lakers | Pacers Moneyline | 20¢ | LOSS | -0.20u | IND 117 - LAL 128 |
| 2026-03-06 | Pacers vs. Lakers | Jaxson Hayes Points Over 9.5 | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.52u | LAL 128 - IND 117 |
| 2026-03-06 | Knicks vs. Nuggets | Karl-Anthony Towns Points Over 17.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | NYK 142 - DEN 103 |
| 2026-03-06 | Heat vs. Hornets | Kon Knueppel Points Over 18.5 | 57¢ | WIN | +0.43u | Heat 128 - Hornets 120 |
| 2026-03-05 | Pistons vs. Spurs | Keldon Johnson Over 3.5 Rebounds | — | WIN | +0.50u | Spurs 121 - Pistons 106 |
| 2026-03-05 | Senators vs. Flames | Over 5.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | OTT 4 - CGY 1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lakers vs. Nuggets | Over 29.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | DEN 120 - LAL 113 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lakers vs. Nuggets | Over 237.5 | 60¢ | LOSS | -0.59u | LAL 113 - DEN 120 |
| 2026-03-05 | Pistons vs. Spurs | Over 11.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.50u | Spurs 121 - Pistons 106 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mavericks vs. Magic | Over 21.5 | 28¢ | WIN | +0.72u | Magic 115 - Mavericks 114 |
| 2026-03-04 | Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies +7.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | MEM 114 - POR 122 |
| 2026-03-04 | Hornets vs. Celtics | Miles Bridges Over 12.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | CHA 118 - BOS 89 |
| 2026-03-04 | Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Game Total Over 4.5 | 76¢ | WIN | +0.24u | TOR 3 - NJD 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Hawks vs. Bucks | Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 25.5 Points | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | Hawks 131 - Bucks 113 |
| 2026-03-04 | Thunder vs. Knicks | Thunder 1H Moneyline | 62¢ | WIN | +0.38u | OKC 103 - NYK 100 |
| 2026-03-03 | Minnesota Alpha Volume | Julius Randle Over 18.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | MIN 117 - MEM 110 |
| 2026-03-03 | Wizards Usage Expansion | Bilal Coulibaly Over 10.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | ORL 126 - WAS 109 |