THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Mavericks vs. Hornets | Mavericks +11.5 | 45¢ | LOSS | -0.45u | DAL 90 - CHA 117 |
| 2026-03-02 | Celtics vs. Bucks | Bucks +7.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | MIL 81 - BOS 108 |
| 2026-03-02 | Coppin State Eagles vs. Howard Bison | Under 136.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Coppin State Eagles 70 - Howard Bison 90 |
| 2026-03-02 | IU Indy Jaguars vs. Cleveland State Vikings | Under 171.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | IU Indianapolis Jaguars 93 - Cleveland State Vikings 101 |
| 2026-03-02 | Blue Jackets vs. Rangers | Rangers Moneyline | 46¢ | LOSS | -0.46u | Blue Jackets 5 - Rangers 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Blue Jackets vs. Rangers | Over 4.5 Goals | 78¢ | WIN | +0.22u | CBJ 5 - NYR 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Nuggets vs. Jazz | Nikola Jokić: Rebounds Over 12.5 | 56¢ | LOSS | -0.56u | Nuggets 128 - Jazz 125 |
| 2026-03-02 | Rockets vs. Wizards | Tari Eason: Points Over 14.5 | 57¢ | LOSS | -0.57u | HOU 123 - WAS 118 |
| 2026-03-02 | Rockets vs. Wizards | Amen Thompson: Rebounds Over 7.5 | 64¢ | WIN | +0.36u | HOU 123 - WAS 118 |
| 2026-03-01 | Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Total | Over 232.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 100 - DAL 87 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kings vs. Lakers 1H Total | 1H Over 119.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Kings 49 - Lakers 64 (1H) |
| 2026-03-01 | 76ers vs. Celtics | Derrick White Over 15.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Celtics 114 - 76ers 98 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pelicans vs. Clippers | Jeremiah Fears Points Over 14.5 | 66¢ | WIN | +0.34u | Pelicans 117 - Clippers 137 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pistons vs. Magic | Magic Moneyline | 34¢ | LOSS | -0.34u | ORL 92 - DET 106 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pistons vs. Magic | Cade Cunningham Points Over 24.5 | 62¢ | WIN | +0.38u | DET 106 - ORL 92 |
| 2026-03-01 | Bucks vs. Bulls | Game Total Over 227.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | MIL 97 - CHI 120 |
| 2026-03-01 | Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić Points Over 27.5 | 65¢ | WIN | +0.35u | Timberwolves 117 - Nuggets 108 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lakers vs. Warriors High-Volume Spot | De'Anthony Melton Over 15.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Lakers 129 - Warriors 101 |
| 2026-02-28 | Capitals vs. Canadiens | Over 4.5 | 80¢ | WIN | +0.20u | |
| 2026-02-28 | Penguins vs. Rangers | Rangers Moneyline | 44¢ | WIN | +0.55u | Texas Rangers 7 - Los Angeles Dodgers 6 |
| 2026-02-28 | Raptors vs. Wizards | 1H Spread: Raptors -8.5 | 61¢ | LOSS | -0.61u | Wizards 64 - Raptors 61 (Halftime Score) |
| 2026-02-28 | Rockets vs. Heat | Over 223.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | |
| 2026-02-28 | Trail Blazers vs. Hornets | Hornets Moneyline | 74¢ | WIN | +0.26u | CHA 109 - POR 93 |
| 2026-02-27 | Knicks vs. Bucks | Knicks (-7.5) | — | WIN | +0.50u | NYK 127 - MIL 98 |
| 2026-02-27 | Jets vs. Ducks | Over 4.5 | 78¢ | WIN | +0.21u | WPG 4 - ANA 5 |
| 2026-02-27 | Nets vs. Celtics | Noah Clowney: Points Over 11.5 | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.52u | Nets 111 - Celtics 148 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Cavaliers Moneyline | 30¢ | LOSS | -0.30u | CLE 119 - DET 122 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Jarrett Allen: Points Over 14.5 | 74¢ | WIN | +0.26u | DET 122 - CLE 119 |
| 2026-02-26 | Timberwolves vs. Clippers | Timberwolves -4.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | MIN 94 - LA Clippers 88 |
| 2026-02-26 | Hornets vs. Pacers Retail Fade Opportunity | Miles Bridges Over 16.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Hornets 133 - Pacers 109 |
| 2026-02-26 | Kings vs. Mavericks DeRozan Scoring Floor | DeMar DeRozan Over 15.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | SAC 130 - DAL 121 |
| 2026-02-26 | Spurs vs. Nets | Spurs -11.5 | 54¢ | WIN | +0.46u | SAS 126 - BKN 110 |
| 2026-02-26 | Rockets vs. Magic | Over 24.5 | 66¢ | WIN | +0.33u | HOU 113 - ORL 108 |
| 2026-02-26 | Heat vs. 76ers | Under 238.5 | 46¢ | LOSS | -0.46u | MIA 117 - PHI 124 |
| 2026-02-26 | Heat vs. 76ers | Over 17.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | PHI 124 - MIA 117 |
| 2026-02-26 | Heat vs. 76ers | Under 27.5 | 72¢ | WIN | +0.28u | PHI 124 - MIA 117 |
| 2026-02-25 | Celtics vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić Under 13.5 Rebounds | — | WIN | +0.50u | DEN 103 - BOS 84 |
| 2026-02-25 | Cavaliers vs. Bucks | Jarrett Allen Over 15.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Bucks 118 - Cavaliers 116 |
| 2026-02-25 | Thunder vs. Pistons | Pistons -5.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | DET 124 - OKC 116 |
| 2026-02-25 | Oilers vs. Ducks | Over 5.5 Goals | 65¢ | WIN | +0.35u | EDM 5 - ANA 6 |
| 2026-02-25 | Avalanche vs. Utah | Over 5.5 Goals | 65¢ | WIN | +0.35u | COL 4 - Utah Mammoth 2 |
| 2026-02-25 | Cavaliers vs. Bucks | Jarrett Allen Over 9.5 Rebounds | 57¢ | WIN | +0.43u | Cavaliers 116 - Bucks 118 |
| 2026-02-25 | Spurs vs. Raptors | Spurs Moneyline | 72¢ | WIN | +0.28u | SAS 110 - TOR 107 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kentucky Wildcats vs. South Carolina Gamecocks | South Carolina +6.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | South Carolina Gamecocks 63 - Kentucky Wildcats 72 |
| 2026-02-24 | Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Evan Mobley: Points Over 12.5 | 35¢ | LOSS | -0.35u | Knicks 94 - Cavaliers 109 |
| 2026-02-24 | Thunder vs. Raptors | Raptors 1H +0.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.49u | TOR 107 - OKC 116 |
| 2026-02-24 | Wizards vs. Hawks | 1H Over 121.5 | 53¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | WAS 98 - ATL 119 |
| 2026-02-24 | Wizards vs. Hawks | Wizards 1H +8.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.49u | WAS 98 - ATL 119 |
| 2026-02-23 | CBB Public Total Overreaction | Under 136.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | Kansas 69 - Houston 56 |
| 2026-02-23 | Rockets vs. Jazz | Alperen Sengün Over 18.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | HOU 125 - UTA 105 |