THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Jazz vs. Rockets | Keyonte George Over 14.5 Points | 35¢ | LOSS | -0.35u | HOU 125 - UTA 105 |
| 2026-02-23 | Kings vs. Grizzlies | Malik Monk Over 11.5 Points | 44¢ | LOSS | -0.44u | Kings 123 - Grizzlies 114 |
| 2026-02-23 | Spurs vs. Pistons | 1H Under 114.5 | 40¢ | WIN | +0.60u | Spurs 57 - Pistons 55 (1H) |
| 2026-02-23 | Spurs vs. Pistons | Cade Cunningham Over 25.5 Points | 34¢ | LOSS | -0.34u | Spurs 114 - Pistons 103 |
| 2026-02-23 | Spurs vs. Pistons | Victor Wembanyama Over 22.5 Points | 32¢ | LOSS | -0.32u | Spurs 114 - Pistons 103 |
| 2026-02-22 | 76ers vs. Timberwolves | Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | PHI 135 - MIN 108 |
| 2026-02-22 | Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Suns Moneyline | 42¢ | LOSS | -0.41u | PHX 77 - POR 92 |
| 2026-02-22 | Knicks vs. Bulls | Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds Over 10.5 | 44¢ | WIN | +0.56u | Knicks 105 - Bulls 99 |
| 2026-02-22 | Celtics vs. Lakers | LeBron James: Rebounds Over 5.5 | 40¢ | LOSS | -0.40u | BOS 111 - LAL 89 |
| 2026-02-22 | Hornets vs. Wizards | Bub Carrington: Points Over 10.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.50u | CHA 129 - WAS 112 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cavaliers vs. Thunder | Cavaliers -2.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | CLE 113 - OKC 121 |
| 2026-02-21 | South Dakota Coyotes vs. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles | Over 148.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | |
| 2026-02-21 | Kings vs. Spurs | Victor Wembanyama: Points Over 23.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | Spurs 139 - Kings 122 |
| 2026-02-21 | Rockets vs. Knicks | Over 213.5 | 60¢ | WIN | +0.40u | |
| 2026-02-21 | Pistons vs. Bulls | Cade Cunningham Over 9.5 Assists | 43¢ | WIN | +0.57u | Pistons 126 - Bulls 110 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kings vs. Spurs | Over 226.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | |
| 2026-02-21 | Grizzlies vs. Heat | Heat -8.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | MIA 136 - MEM 120 |
| 2026-02-21 | 76ers vs. Pelicans | VJ Edgecombe Over 16.5 Points | 40¢ | LOSS | -0.40u | 76ers 111 - Pelicans 126 |
| 2026-02-20 | Nets vs. Thunder | Nets +15.5 | 43¢ | LOSS | -0.43u | BKN 86 - OKC 105 |
| 2026-02-20 | Heat vs. Hawks | Over 242.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | MIA 128 - ATL 97 |
| 2026-02-20 | Mavericks vs. Timberwolves | Over 232.5 | 62¢ | WIN | +0.38u | DAL 111 - MIN 122 |
| 2026-02-20 | Jazz vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies -4.5 | 41¢ | WIN | +0.59u | MEM 123 - UTA 114 |
| 2026-02-20 | Pacers vs. Wizards | Bub Carrington Over 4.5 Assists | 73¢ | WIN | +0.27u | WAS 131 - IND 118 |
| 2026-02-19 | Celtics vs. Warriors | Celtics -2.5 | 62¢ | WIN | +0.38u | BOS 121 - GSW 110 |
| 2026-02-19 | Pistons vs. Knicks | Jalen Brunson: Points Over 26.5 | 32¢ | WIN | +0.69u | Pistons 126 - Knicks 111 |
| 2026-02-19 | Nets vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers -12.5 | 62¢ | WIN | +0.39u | CLE 112 - BKN 84 |
| 2026-02-19 | Rockets vs. Hornets | Alperen Sengün: Rebounds Over 8.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | Rockets 105 - Hornets 101 |
| 2026-02-19 | Hawks vs. 76ers | Tyrese Maxey: Points Over 28.5 | 42¢ | LOSS | -0.42u | Hawks 117 - 76ers 107 |
| 2026-02-18 | CBB Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Penn State Nittany Lions | Penn State Nittany Lions Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Penn State Nittany Lions 72 - Rutgers Scarlet Knights 85 |
| 2026-02-18 | North Dakota State Bison vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits | North Dakota State Bison ML | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | North Dakota State Bison 74 - South Dakota State Jackrabbits 66 |
| 2026-02-17 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | Over 139.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.50u | Nebraska Cornhuskers 52 - Iowa Hawkeyes 57 |
| 2026-02-17 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | Iowa Hawkeyes -1.5 | 49¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Iowa Hawkeyes 57 - Nebraska Cornhuskers 52 |
| 2026-02-17 | Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes | Wisconsin Badgers -1.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.50u | Wisconsin Badgers 69 - Ohio State Buckeyes 86 |
| 2026-02-17 | Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes | Miami Hurricanes -8.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | Miami Hurricanes 67 - Virginia Tech Hokies 66 |
| 2026-02-17 | Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers +2.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.47u | Purdue Boilermakers 80 - Michigan Wolverines 91 |
| 2026-02-16 | Colgate Raiders vs. Boston Terriers | Colgate Raiders Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Colgate Raiders 58 - Boston University Terriers 85 |
| 2026-02-16 | Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns vs. Old Dominion Monarchs | Old Dominion Monarchs -5.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | Old Dominion Monarchs 83 - Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 72 |
| 2026-02-16 | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | Stephen F. Austin -5.5 | 30¢ | WIN | +0.70u | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 78 - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders 68 |
| 2026-02-16 | Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. Jackson State Tigers | Under 149.5 | 34¢ | LOSS | -0.34u | Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 86 - Jackson State Tigers 91 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wagner Seahawks vs. LIU Sharks | Under 136.5 | 29¢ | LOSS | -0.29u | Wagner Seahawks 65 - Long Island University Sharks 83 |
| 2026-02-16 | Coppin State Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs | South Carolina State -5.5 | 34¢ | LOSS | -0.34u | South Carolina State Bulldogs 57 - Coppin State Eagles 59 |
| 2026-02-16 | Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. East Texas A&M Lions | Over 135.5 | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | East Texas A&M Lions 70 - SE Louisiana Lions 53 |
| 2026-02-12 | Bucks vs. Thunder | Bucks +14.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 93 - MIL 110 |
| 2026-02-10 | Houston Cougars vs. Utah Utes | Houston Cougars -16.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | Houston Cougars 66 - Utah Utes 52 |
| 2026-02-10 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanes | Miami ML | — | WIN | +0.50u | Miami Hurricanes 75 - North Carolina Tar Heels 66 |
| 2026-02-10 | Clippers vs. Rockets | Rockets -7.5 | 56¢ | LOSS | -0.56u | HOU 102 - LA Clippers 95 |
| 2026-02-10 | Pacers vs. Knicks | O/U 223.5 Over | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | IND 137 - NYK 134 |
| 2026-02-09 | Cavaliers vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić: Points Under 28.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | CLE 119 - DEN 117 |
| 2026-02-07 | Nuggets vs. Bulls | Nuggets vs. Bulls: Over 228.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | DEN 136 - CHI 120 |
| 2026-02-07 | Nuggets vs. Bulls | Nuggets vs. Bulls: Over 228.5 | 62¢ | WIN | +0.38u | DEN 136 - CHI 120 |