THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Flyers vs. Golden Knights | Golden Knights Moneyline | 44¢ | LOSS | -0.45u | VGK 1 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-01-19 | Wild vs. Maple Leafs | Wild (+1.5) Spread | 70¢ | WIN | +0.30u | MIN 6 - TOR 3 |
| 2026-01-19 | Miami vs. Indiana | Indiana Moneyline | 74¢ | WIN | +0.26u | Indiana Hoosiers 27 - Miami Hurricanes 21 |
| 2026-02-15 | Team World vs. Team USA Stars | Over 82.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | World 35 - Team Stars 37 |
| 2026-02-14 | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores | Texas A&M ML | 24¢ | LOSS | -0.24u | Texas A&M Aggies 69 - Vanderbilt Commodores 82 |
| 2026-02-14 | Navy Midshipmen vs. Colgate Raiders | Navy Midshipmen Moneyline | 50¢ | WIN | +0.50u | Navy Midshipmen 84 - Colgate Raiders 80 |
| 2026-02-15 | San Francisco Dons vs. San Diego Toreros | San Francisco Dons -4.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | San Francisco Dons 92 - San Diego Toreros 79 |
| 2026-02-15 | IU Indy Jaguars vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | Purdue Fort Wayne -6.5 | 51¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 83 - IU Indianapolis Jaguars 78 |
| 2026-02-15 | Maryland Terrapins vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights | Rutgers Scarlet Knights -2.5 | 46¢ | WIN | +0.53u | Rutgers Scarlet Knights 68 - Maryland Terrapins 57 |
| 2026-02-15 | Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripes | Team USA Stars ML | 43¢ | WIN | +0.57u | Team Stars 37 - World 35 |
| 2026-02-15 | Team World vs. Team USA Stars | Team World ML | 59¢ | LOSS | -0.59u | World 35 - Team Stars 37 |
| 2026-02-14 | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores | Under 165.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Texas A&M Aggies 69 - Vanderbilt Commodores 82 |
| 2026-02-14 | Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones -6.5 | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Iowa State Cyclones 74 - Kansas Jayhawks 56 |
| 2026-02-14 | Navy Midshipmen vs. Colgate Raiders | Under 139.5 | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.52u | Navy Midshipmen 84 - Colgate Raiders 80 |
| 2026-02-13 | George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries | George Mason Patriots ML | 44¢ | LOSS | -0.45u | George Mason Patriots 53 - George Washington Revolutionaries 72 |
| 2026-02-13 | Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles | Niagara Purple Eagles -2.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.47u | Niagara Purple Eagles 69 - Manhattan Jaspers 76 |
| 2026-02-12 | Memphis Tigers vs. North Texas Mean Green | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | North Texas Mean Green 76 - Memphis Tigers 69 |
| 2026-02-12 | LIU Sharks vs. Wagner Seahawks | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | Long Island University Sharks 67 - Wagner Seahawks 57 |
| 2026-02-12 | William Mary Tribe vs. Northeastern Huskies | — | — | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-12 | High Point Panthers vs. USC Upstate Spartans | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | High Point Panthers 95 - South Carolina Upstate Spartans 70 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mavericks vs. Lakers | Naji Marshall: Points Under 18.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | DAL 104 - LAL 124 |
| 2026-02-12 | Trail Blazers vs. Jazz | Vít Krejčí: Points Over 8.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Trail Blazers 135 - Jazz 119 |
| 2026-02-12 | Bucks vs. Thunder | Bucks +14.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | MIL 110 - OKC 93 |
| 2026-02-11 | Virginia Tech vs. Clemson | — | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Clemson Tigers 66 - Virginia Tech Hokies 76 |
| 2026-02-11 | Wizards vs. Cavaliers | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | CLE 138 - WAS 113 |
| 2026-02-11 | Thunder vs. Suns | Thunder vs. Suns | — | WIN | +0.50u | Thunder 136 - Suns 109 |
| 2026-02-11 | Knicks vs. 76ers | — | — | PUSH | +0.00u | Knicks 138 - 76ers 89 |
| 2026-02-11 | Pistons vs. Raptors | Raptors Moneyline | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | TOR 95 - DET 113 |
| 2026-02-11 | Pacers vs. Nets | Over 211.5 | 58¢ | WIN | +0.42u | |
| 2026-02-11 | Bucks vs. Magic | Magic -9.5 | 53¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | ORL 108 - MIL 116 |
| 2026-02-11 | Hawks vs. Hornets | Over 230.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | |
| 2026-02-11 | Clippers vs. Rockets | Rockets 1H Spread -5.5 | 74¢ | LOSS | -0.74u | HOU 102 - LA Clippers 105 |
| 2026-02-09 | Hawks vs. Timberwolves | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | MIN 138 - ATL 116 |
| 2026-02-09 | Navy Midshipmen vs. Bucknell Bison | Navy vs. Bucknell: Over 134.5 | 60¢ | WIN | +0.40u | Navy Midshipmen 76 - Bucknell Bison 60 |
| 2026-02-09 | 76ers vs. Trail Blazers | Deni Avdija: Points Under 21.5 | 49¢ | LOSS | -0.49u | 76ers 118 - Trail Blazers 135 |
| 2026-02-09 | Cavaliers vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić: Points Under 28.5 | 45¢ | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-09 | Kings vs. Pelicans | Domantas Sabonis: Points Under 14.5 | 48¢ | PUSH | +0.00u | Kings 94 - Pelicans 120 |
| 2026-02-09 | Bucks vs. Magic | Bucks +8.5 | 43¢ | LOSS | -0.43u | MIL 99 - ORL 118 |
| 2026-02-08 | Seahawks vs. Patriots 1H Spread | — | — | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-08 | Seahawks Team Total Over 17.5 | Seahawks Team Total Over 17.5 | — | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-08 | Seahawks vs. Patriots Under 45.5 | Seahawks vs. Patriots Under 45.5 | — | PUSH | +0.00u | Unknown |
| 2026-02-08 | Pacers vs. Raptors | Pacers +8.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | IND 104 - TOR 122 |
| 2026-02-08 | Clippers vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves Moneyline | 74¢ | LOSS | -0.73u | MIN 96 - LA Clippers 115 |
| 2026-02-08 | Heat vs. Wizards | Alexandre Sarr Under 16.5 Points | 50¢ | WIN | +0.50u | Heat 132 - Wizards 101 |
| 2026-02-08 | Knicks vs. Celtics | Josh Hart Under 4.5 Assists | 48¢ | WIN | +0.52u | Knicks 111 - Celtics 89 |
| 2026-02-08 | Seattle vs. New England | Seahawks Team Total: Over 17.5 | 76¢ | WIN | +0.23u | Seattle Seahawks 29 - New England Patriots 13 |
| 2026-02-07 | Seton Hall vs. Creighton | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | Seton Hall Pirates 68 - Creighton Bluejays 69 |
| 2026-02-07 | Warriors vs. Lakers | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | GSW 99 - LAL 105 |
| 2026-02-07 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs | Arkansas Razorbacks Moneyline | 72¢ | WIN | +0.28u | Arkansas Razorbacks 88 - Mississippi State Bulldogs 68 |
| 2026-02-07 | 76ers vs. Suns | Joel Embiid: Points Over 27.5 | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | 76ers 109 - Suns 103 |