THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Nuggets vs. Bulls | Nuggets -4.5 | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | DEN 136 - CHI 120 |
| 2026-02-07 | Jazz vs. Magic | Magic Moneyline | 72¢ | WIN | +0.28u | ORL 120 - UTA 117 |
| 2026-02-06 | Belmont Bruins vs. UIC Flames | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | Belmont Bruins 68 - UIC Flames 62 |
| 2026-02-06 | Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams | VCU Rams Moneyline | 75¢ | WIN | +0.25u | VCU Rams 99 - Dayton Flyers 73 |
| 2026-02-06 | Clippers vs. Kings | Kings Moneyline | 38¢ | LOSS | -0.39u | SAC 111 - LA Clippers 114 |
| 2026-02-06 | Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | Julius Randle: Under 21.5 Points | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | NOP 119 - MIN 115 |
| 2026-02-06 | Pacers vs. Bucks | Bobby Portis: Under 14.5 Points | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | MIL 105 - IND 99 |
| 2026-02-06 | Heat vs. Celtics | Andrew Wiggins: Under 5.5 Rebounds | 51¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | BOS 98 - MIA 96 |
| 2026-02-05 | Jazz vs. Hawks | Over 237.5 | 63¢ | LOSS | -0.63u | ATL 121 - UTA 119 |
| 2026-02-05 | 76ers vs. Lakers | Joel Embiid: Under 28.5 Points | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | LAL 119 - PHI 115 |
| 2026-02-05 | Islanders vs. Devils | Devils +1.5 | 73¢ | LOSS | -0.73u | NJD 1 - NYI 3 |
| 2026-02-05 | Elon Phoenix vs. Hampton Pirates | Hampton Pirates Moneyline | 44¢ | WIN | +0.55u | Hampton Pirates 87 - Elon Phoenix 79 |
| 2026-02-05 | 76ers vs. Lakers | Joel Embiid: Under 28.5 Points | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | Lakers 119 - 76ers 115 |
| 2026-02-05 | Jazz vs. Hawks | Over 237.5 | 63¢ | WIN | +0.37u | UTA 119 - ATL 121 |
| 2026-02-05 | Wizards vs. Pistons | Cade Cunningham: Under 24.5 Points | 46¢ | LOSS | -0.46u | Wizards 126 - Pistons 117 |
| 2026-02-04 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs | — | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 106 - SAS 116 |
| 2026-02-04 | Denver Nuggets vs. New York Knicks | — | — | LOSS | -0.50u | DEN 127 - NYK 134 |
| 2026-02-04 | San Jose Sharks vs. Colorado Avalanche | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | COL 4 - SJS 2 |
| 2026-02-04 | Sharks vs. Avalanche | Avalanche -1.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | COL 4 - SJS 2 |
| 2026-02-04 | Wild vs. Predators | Predators Moneyline | 46¢ | LOSS | -0.46u | NSH 5 - MIN 6 |
| 2026-02-04 | Grizzlies vs. Kings | Under 230.5 | 56¢ | LOSS | -0.56u | MEM 129 - SAC 125 |
| 2026-02-04 | Celtics vs. Rockets | Rockets Moneyline | 66¢ | LOSS | -0.66u | HOU 93 - BOS 114 |
| 2026-02-04 | Nuggets vs. Knicks | Knicks -5.5 | 54¢ | WIN | +0.46u | NYK 134 - DEN 127 |
| 2026-02-03 | 76ers vs. Warriors | — | — | WIN | +0.50u | PHI 113 - GSW 94 |
| 2026-02-03 | Nevada vs. Boise State | — | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Nevada Wolf Pack 87 - Boise State Broncos 91 |
| 2026-02-03 | Senators vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes Moneyline | 64¢ | WIN | +0.50u | CAR 4 - OTT 3 |
| 2026-02-03 | Maple Leafs vs. Oilers | Under 6.5 | 44¢ | LOSS | -0.45u | TOR 5 - EDM 2 |
| 2026-02-03 | Maple Leafs vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 64¢ | LOSS | -0.64u | EDM 2 - TOR 5 |
| 2026-02-03 | Senators vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes Moneyline | 64¢ | WIN | +0.35u | CAR 4 - OTT 3 |
| 2026-02-03 | Magic vs. Thunder | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points Under 31.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Thunder 110 - Magic 104 |
| 2026-02-03 | Jazz vs. Pacers | Bennedict Mathurin: Points Over 15.5 | 50¢ | PUSH | +0.00u | Jazz 131 - Pacers 122 |
| 2026-02-02 | 76ers vs. Clippers | Quentin Grimes: Points Under 9.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | PHI 128 - LAC 113 |
| 2026-02-02 | 76ers vs. Clippers | Quentin Grimes: Points Under 9.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.50u | LA Clippers 113 - PHI 128 |
| 2026-02-02 | Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies | Timberwolves Moneyline | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.52u | Grizzlies 137 - Timberwolves 128 |
| 2026-02-02 | Canucks vs. Utah | Canucks Moneyline | 28¢ | LOSS | -0.28u | VAN 2 - Utah Mammoth 6 |
| 2026-02-02 | 76ers vs. Clippers | Quentin Grimes: Points Under 9.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | 76ers 128 - Clippers 113 |
| 2026-02-02 | Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies | Timberwolves Moneyline | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.52u | MIN 128 - MEM 137 |
| 2026-02-02 | Pelicans vs. Hornets | Pelicans vs. Hornets: Under 235.5 | 58¢ | WIN | +0.42u | NOP 95 - CHA 102 |
| 2026-02-02 | Pelicans vs. Hornets | Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds Over 9.5 | 58¢ | LOSS | -0.58u | Pelicans 95 - Hornets 102 |
| 2026-02-01 | Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Oregon Ducks | Iowa Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | Iowa Hawkeyes 84 - Oregon Ducks 66 |
| 2026-02-01 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets | Thunder -4.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 121 - DEN 111 |
| 2026-02-01 | Orlando Magic vs. San Antonio Spurs | Magic +5.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | ORL 103 - SAS 112 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Canisius Golden Griffins Moneyline | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.49u | Canisius Golden Griffins 63 - Siena Saints 78 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Over 131.5 | 48¢ | WIN | +0.52u | Siena Saints 78 - Canisius Golden Griffins 63 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Canisius Golden Griffins +8.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.49u | Canisius Golden Griffins 63 - Siena Saints 78 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Under 131.5 | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.52u | Siena Saints 78 - Canisius Golden Griffins 63 |
| 2026-02-01 | Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffins | Siena Saints -8.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Siena Saints 78 - Canisius Golden Griffins 63 |
| 2026-01-31 | Utah Tech Trailblazers vs. Tarleton State Texans | Tarleton State Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Tarleton State Texans 59 - Utah Tech Trailblazers 65 |
| 2026-01-31 | Indiana Hoosiers vs. UCLA Bruins | UCLA Bruins Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | UCLA Bruins 97 - Indiana Hoosiers 98 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kings vs. Flyers | Kings -1.5 | 29¢ | LOSS | -0.29u | LAK 3 - PHI 2 |