THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Kings vs. Flyers | Kings vs. Flyers Under 5.5 | 49¢ | WIN | +0.51u | LAK 3 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kings vs. Flyers | Kings Moneyline | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | LAK 3 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-01-30 | Clippers vs. Nuggets | Nikola Jokić: Assists Over 7.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | Nuggets 122 - Clippers 109 |
| 2026-01-30 | Cavaliers vs. Suns | Donovan Mitchell: Points Over 31.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | PHX 126 - CLE 113 |
| 2026-01-30 | Magic vs. Raptors | Paolo Banchero: Points Over 22.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | ORL 130 - TOR 120 |
| 2026-01-30 | Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks | Blackhawks +1.5 | 64¢ | LOSS | -0.64u | CHI 2 - CBJ 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Nets vs. Jazz | Jusuf Nurkić: Points Under 12.5 | 48¢ | PUSH | +0.00u | BKN 109 - UTA 99 |
| 2026-01-30 | Cavaliers vs. Suns | Jarrett Allen: Points Under 12.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Cavaliers 112 - Suns 110 |
| 2026-01-30 | Clippers vs. Nuggets | Kawhi Leonard: Points Under 22.5 | 48¢ | WIN | +0.52u | Nuggets 109 - Clippers 102 |
| 2026-01-30 | Lakers vs. Wizards | Austin Reaves: Points Under 15.5 | 50¢ | PUSH | +0.00u | Lakers 142 - Wizards 111 |
| 2026-01-29 | Sharks vs. Oilers | Over 6.5 Goals | — | WIN | +0.50u | SJS 3 - EDM 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Pistons vs. Suns | Pistons (-4.5) | — | LOSS | -0.50u | DET 96 - PHX 114 |
| 2026-01-29 | Lipscomb Bisons vs. Jacksonville Dolphins | Lipscomb Bisons Moneyline | 65¢ | LOSS | -0.65u | Lipscomb Bisons 65 - Jacksonville Dolphins 70 |
| 2026-01-29 | Capitals vs. Red Wings | Over 5.5 Goals | 48¢ | WIN | +0.52u | WSH 4 - DET 3 |
| 2026-01-29 | Capitals vs. Red Wings | Capitals Moneyline | 46¢ | WIN | +0.53u | WSH 4 - DET 3 |
| 2026-01-29 | Utah vs. Hurricanes | Over 5.5 Goals | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | Southern Utah Thunderbirds 61 - UT Arlington Mavericks 80 |
| 2026-01-29 | Kings vs. 76ers | Russell Westbrook Under 5.5 Assists | 52¢ | PUSH | +0.00u | 76ers 113 - Kings 111 |
| 2026-01-28 | Hawks vs. Celtics | Celtics -5.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | BOS 106 - ATL 117 |
| 2026-01-28 | Hornets vs. Grizzlies | Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 19.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Hornets 112 - Grizzlies 97 |
| 2026-01-28 | Knicks vs. Raptors | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 18.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Knicks 119 - Raptors 92 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs | Georgia Bulldogs -0.5 | 74¢ | LOSS | -0.73u | Georgia Bulldogs 85 - Tennessee Volunteers 86 |
| 2026-01-28 | Rangers vs. Islanders | Rangers Moneyline | 42¢ | LOSS | -0.42u | NYR 2 - NYI 5 |
| 2026-01-28 | Magic vs. Heat | Pelle Larsson Under 3.5 Assists | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | Magic 133 - Heat 124 |
| 2026-01-28 | Bulls vs. Pacers | Ayo Dosunmu Over 12.5 Points | 47¢ | WIN | +0.53u | Pacers 113 - Bulls 110 |
| 2026-01-28 | Lakers vs. Cavaliers | LeBron James Under 6.5 Rebounds | 46¢ | WIN | +0.54u | Cavaliers 129 - Lakers 99 |
| 2026-01-27 | Pelicans vs. Thunder | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Thunder 104 - Pelicans 95 |
| 2026-01-27 | Clippers vs. Jazz | Kris Dunn Over 6.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Clippers 115 - Jazz 103 |
| 2026-01-27 | Sharks vs. Canucks | Canucks Moneyline | 46¢ | LOSS | -0.46u | VAN 2 - SJS 5 |
| 2026-01-27 | Pistons vs. Nuggets | Under 24.5 Points | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | Pistons 109 - Nuggets 107 |
| 2026-01-27 | Bucks vs. 76ers | Under 220.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | MIL 122 - PHI 139 |
| 2026-01-27 | Kings vs. Knicks | Under 11.5 Rebounds | 49¢ | WIN | +0.51u | Knicks 103 - Kings 87 |
| 2026-01-27 | Trail Blazers vs. Wizards | Under 233.5 | 54¢ | WIN | +0.46u | POR 111 - WAS 115 |
| 2026-01-26 | Trail Blazers vs. Celtics | Trail Blazers +9.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | POR 94 - BOS 102 |
| 2026-01-26 | Warriors vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves -7.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | MIN 108 - GSW 83 |
| 2026-01-26 | Ducks vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 68¢ | WIN | +0.32u | EDM 7 - ANA 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Grizzlies vs. Rockets | Grizzlies +10.5 | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | MEM 99 - HOU 108 |
| 2026-01-26 | Lakers vs. Bulls | Over 236.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | LAL 129 - CHI 118 |
| 2026-01-26 | Magic vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers Moneyline | 66¢ | WIN | +0.34u | CLE 114 - ORL 98 |
| 2026-01-26 | Pacers vs. Hawks | Hawks -4.5 | 54¢ | WIN | +0.46u | ATL 132 - IND 116 |
| 2026-01-25 | Raptors vs. Thunder | Thunder Spread (-10.5) | — | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 101 - TOR 103 |
| 2026-01-25 | Florida Atlantic Owls vs. South Florida Bulls | South Florida Bulls -4.5 | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | South Florida Bulls 89 - Florida Atlantic Owls 75 |
| 2026-01-25 | Golden Knights vs. Senators | Senators +1.5 | 65¢ | WIN | +0.35u | OTT 7 - VGK 1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs | Avalanche ML | 62¢ | WIN | +0.39u | COL 4 - TOR 1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Rams vs. Seahawks | Anytime Touchdown | — | WIN | +0.50u | Kyren Williams: 1 TD |
| 2026-01-25 | Patriots vs. Broncos | Over 48.5 Rushing Yards | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | Rhamondre Stevenson: 71 Yards |
| 2026-01-24 | Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic | Under 228.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | CLE 119 - ORL 105 |
| 2026-01-24 | Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat | Keyonte George Over 24.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | George: 19 Points |
| 2026-01-24 | Bellarmine Knights vs. North Florida Ospreys | Bellarmine Knights -2.5 | 62¢ | LOSS | -0.62u | Bellarmine Knights 114 - North Florida Ospreys 117 |
| 2026-01-24 | Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan State Spartans | Maryland Terrapins +18.5 | 49¢ | LOSS | -0.49u | Maryland Terrapins 48 - Michigan State Spartans 91 |
| 2026-01-24 | Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan State Spartans | Maryland vs. Michigan State Under 140.5 | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Maryland Terrapins 48 - Michigan State Spartans 91 |