THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats | Kentucky Wildcats -9.5 | 53¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | Kentucky Wildcats 72 - Ole Miss Rebels 63 |
| 2026-01-24 | Sabres vs. Islanders | Sabres vs. Islanders Under 6.5 | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | BUF 5 - NYI 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Pelicans vs. Grizzlies (Dog of the Day) | Pelicans ML | 34¢ | WIN | +0.66u | NOP 133 - MEM 127 |
| 2026-01-23 | Bucks vs. Nuggets | Bucks ML | 70¢ | LOSS | -0.70u | MIL 100 - DEN 102 |
| 2026-01-23 | Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 Points | Yes | 47¢ | LOSS | -0.47u | Ohio State Buckeyes 62 - Michigan Wolverines 74 |
| 2026-01-23 | Capitals vs. Flames | Flames +1.5 | 66¢ | LOSS | -0.66u | CGY 1 - WSH 3 |
| 2026-01-23 | Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs | Over 5.5 | 57¢ | WIN | +0.43u | |
| 2026-01-23 | Pacers vs. Thunder | Thunder -15.5 | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | OKC 114 - IND 117 |
| 2026-01-23 | Suns vs. Hawks | Over 231.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | |
| 2026-01-23 | Rockets vs. Pistons | Pistons -3.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | DET 104 - HOU 111 |
| 2026-01-22 | Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes -1.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | CAR 3 - CHI 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Rockets vs. 76ers | Joel Embiid Under 24.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Rockets 122 - 76ers 128 (OT) |
| 2026-01-22 | Heat vs. Trail Blazers | Heat Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | MIA 110 - POR 127 |
| 2026-01-22 | Red Wings vs. Wild | Red Wings +1.5 | 64¢ | WIN | +0.36u | DET 3 - MIN 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Penguins vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 62¢ | LOSS | -0.62u | EDM 2 - PIT 6 |
| 2026-01-22 | Panthers vs. Jets | Jets +1.5 | 72¢ | WIN | +0.29u | WPG 1 - FLA 2 |
| 2026-01-22 | Bulls vs. Timberwolves | Anthony Edwards Under 32.5 Points | 46¢ | WIN | +0.54u | Bulls 120 - Timberwolves 115 |
| 2026-01-22 | Nuggets vs. Wizards | Jonas Valančiūnas Under 12.5 Points | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.48u | Nuggets 107 - Wizards 97 |
| 2026-01-21 | Pacers vs. Celtics | Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Pacers 104 - Celtics 119 |
| 2026-01-21 | Rhode Island Rams vs. Richmond Spiders | Rhode Island Rams ML (Dog of the Day) | — | WIN | +0.50u | Rhode Island Rams 69 - Richmond Spiders 68 |
| 2026-01-21 | Pistons vs. Pelicans | Tobias Harris Over 13.5 Points | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Pistons 112 - Pelicans 104 |
| 2026-01-21 | Capitals vs. Canucks | Capitals Moneyline | 60¢ | LOSS | -0.60u | WSH 3 - VAN 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Penguins vs. Flames | Under 6.5 | 57¢ | WIN | +0.43u | PIT 4 - CGY 1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs | Red Wings Moneyline | 48¢ | WIN | +0.52u | DET 2 - TOR 1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Thunder vs. Bucks | 1H Over 116.5 | 51¢ | WIN | +0.49u | OKC 122 - MIL 102 |
| 2026-01-21 | Cavaliers vs. Hornets | Jarrett Allen Under 13.5 Points | 45¢ | WIN | +0.55u | Cavaliers 94 - Hornets 87 |
| 2026-01-20 | Suns vs. 76ers | Suns Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | PHX 116 - PHI 110 |
| 2026-01-20 | Raptors vs. Warriors | Raptors Moneyline (Dog of the Day) | — | WIN | +0.50u | TOR 145 - GSW 127 |
| 2026-01-20 | Timberwolves vs. Jazz | Timberwolves Spread (-10.5) | — | LOSS | -0.50u | MIN 122 - UTA 127 |
| 2026-01-20 | Rangers vs. Kings | Kings Moneyline | 40¢ | LOSS | -0.40u | SAC 117 - MIA 130 |
| 2026-01-20 | Wild vs. Canadiens | Wild Spread (+1.5) | 64¢ | WIN | +0.35u | MIN 3 - MTL 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Sharks vs. Lightning | Lightning Moneyline | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | TBL 4 - SJS 1 |
| 2026-01-20 | Lakers vs. Nuggets | Lakers vs. Nuggets Over 226.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | LAL 115 - DEN 107 |
| 2026-01-20 | Spurs vs. Rockets | Spurs vs. Rockets Under 225.5 | 61¢ | WIN | +0.39u | SAS 106 - HOU 111 |
| 2026-01-18 | Hornets vs. Nuggets | Nuggets Spread (-1.5) | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Hornets 110 - Nuggets 87 |
| 2026-01-18 | Raptors vs. Lakers | Lakers Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | Lakers 110 - Raptors 93 |
| 2026-01-18 | Blues vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 40¢ | WIN | +0.59u | EDM 5 - STL 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Senators vs. Red Wings | Senators +1.5 | 65¢ | WIN | +0.35u | Red Wings 4 - Senators 3 |
| 2026-01-18 | Lightning vs. Stars | Under 6.5 | 58¢ | WIN | +0.42u | Lightning 4 - Stars 1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Nets vs. Bulls | Bulls Moneyline | 68¢ | WIN | +0.31u | CHI 124 - BKN 102 |
| 2026-01-18 | Rams vs. Bears | Rams -3.5 | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.52u | Rams 20 - Bears 17 |
| 2026-01-17 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Timberwolves Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | SAS 126 - MIN 123 |
| 2026-01-17 | Suns vs. Knicks | Knicks Moneyline | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Suns 106 - Knicks 99 |
| 2026-01-17 | Seahawks vs. 49ers | Seahawks Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | Seahawks 41 - 49ers 6 |
| 2026-01-17 | Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs | Under 154.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | Virginia Cavaliers 72 - SMU Mustangs 68 |
| 2026-01-17 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack | North Carolina State Wolfpack -14.5 | 57¢ | LOSS | -0.57u | NC State Wolfpack 74 - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 78 |
| 2026-01-17 | Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini -15.5 | 54¢ | LOSS | -0.54u | Illinois Fighting Illini 77 - Minnesota Golden Gophers 67 |
| 2026-01-17 | Islanders vs. Flames | Islanders Moneyline | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | NYI 2 - CGY 4 |
| 2026-01-17 | Wild vs. Sabres | Wild +1.5 | 68¢ | WIN | +0.32u | MIN 5 - BUF 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Rockets Moneyline | — | WIN | +0.50u | HOU 110 - MIN 105 |