THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
9-2
82% · +2.8u · 25.3% ROI
NBA
174-155
53% · +1.7u · 0.5% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
44-31
59% · +3.2u · 4.3% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
55-61
47% · -5.2u · -4.4% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Illinois vs. Houston | Houston Cougars -2.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Houston Cougars 55 - Illinois Fighting Illini 65 |
| 2026-03-26 | Kings vs. Magic | Paolo Banchero Under 8.5 Rebounds | — | LOSS | -0.50u | ORL 121 - SAC 117 |
| 2026-03-26 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars -3.5 | 46¢ | LOSS | -0.46u | Houston Cougars 55 - Illinois Fighting Illini 65 |
| 2026-03-26 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats | Arkansas vs. Arizona: Under 167.5 | 57¢ | LOSS | -0.57u | Arkansas Razorbacks 88 - Arizona Wildcats 109 |
| 2026-03-26 | Kings vs. Magic | Kings vs. Magic: Over 228.5 | 55¢ | WIN | +0.45u | SAC 117 - ORL 121 |
| 2026-03-26 | Pelicans vs. Pistons | Ausar Thompson Under 5.5 Rebounds | 64¢ | WIN | +0.36u | Pistons 129 - Pelicans 108 |
| 2026-03-26 | Kings vs. Magic | Paolo Banchero Under 24.5 Points | 66¢ | LOSS | -0.67u | SAC 117 - ORL 121 |
| 2026-03-25 | Bucks vs. Trail Blazers Ryan Rollins Usage Surge | Ryan Rollins Over 18.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Bucks 99 - Trail Blazers 130 |
| 2026-03-25 | Thunder vs. Celtics Luguentz Dort Point Total | Luguentz Dort Over 5.5 Points | 65¢ | WIN | +0.35u | Thunder 109 - Celtics 119 |
| 2026-03-25 | Bruins vs. Sabres | Bruins Moneyline | 36¢ | WIN | +0.65u | BOS 4 - BUF 3 |
| 2026-03-25 | Heat vs. Cavaliers | Donovan Mitchell Under 29.5 Points | 70¢ | WIN | +0.30u | MIA 120 - CLE 103 |
| 2026-03-25 | Thunder vs. Celtics | Jayson Tatum Over 19.5 Points | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.53u | Thunder 109 - Celtics 119 |
| 2026-03-25 | Thunder vs. Celtics | Luguentz Dort Over 5.5 Points | 65¢ | WIN | +0.35u | BOS 119 - OKC 109 |
| 2026-03-25 | Bulls vs. 76ers | Paul George Over 14.5 Points | 68¢ | WIN | +0.31u | PHI 157 - CHI 137 |
| 2026-03-24 | Blue Jackets vs. Flyers | Under 5.5 | 45¢ | WIN | +0.55u | CBJ 3 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-03-24 | Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | Hurricanes to Win | 56¢ | LOSS | -0.56u | CAR 2 - MTL 5 |
| 2026-03-24 | Nuggets vs. Suns | Jamal Murray Over 23.5 Points | 52¢ | LOSS | -0.52u | DEN 125 - PHX 123 |
| 2026-03-24 | Nuggets vs. Suns | Nikola Jokić Over 12.5 Rebounds | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | Nuggets 125 - Suns 123 |
| 2026-03-24 | Nuggets vs. Suns | Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 Rebounds | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | DEN 125 - PHX 123 |
| 2026-03-24 | Avalanche vs. Penguins | Avalanche vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Over | 67¢ | WIN | +0.33u | COL 6 - PIT 2 |
| 2026-03-24 | Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane | Wichita State Shockers +4.5 | 14¢ | WIN | +0.86u | Wichita State Shockers 79 - Tulsa Golden Hurricane 83 |
| 2026-03-24 | Magic vs. Cavaliers | James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 Yes | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | Cavaliers 136 - Magic 131 |
| 2026-03-24 | Kings vs. Hornets | Kings +16.5 | 34¢ | LOSS | -0.34u | SAC 90 - CHA 134 |
| 2026-03-24 | Kings vs. Hornets | Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5 Over | 66¢ | LOSS | -0.67u | SAC 90 - CHA 134 |
| 2026-03-23 | Bucks vs. Clippers | Ryan Rollins Points Over 17.5 | 68¢ | LOSS | -0.68u | LAC 129 - MIL 96 |
| 2026-03-23 | Nets vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers -13.5 | 56¢ | WIN | +0.44u | POR 134 - BKN 99 |
| 2026-03-23 | Lakers vs. Pistons | Pistons ML | 46¢ | WIN | +0.53u | DET 113 - LAL 110 |
| 2026-03-23 | Lakers vs. Pistons | Daniss Jenkins Points Over 13.5 | 64¢ | WIN | +0.35u | Lakers 110 - Pistons 113 |
| 2026-03-23 | Thunder vs. 76ers | Over 220.5 | 60¢ | WIN | +0.40u | OKC 123 - PHI 103 |
| 2026-03-21 | Pacers vs. Spurs | Victor Wembanyama Under 25.5 Points | — | WIN | +0.50u | Spurs 134 - Pacers 119 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers | Nebraska Cornhuskers +2.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | Nebraska Cornhuskers 74 - Vanderbilt Commodores 72 |
| 2026-03-21 | VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Under 153.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | VCU Rams 55 - Illinois Fighting Illini 76 |
| 2026-03-21 | Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs -5.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | Gonzaga Bulldogs 68 - Texas Longhorns 74 |
| 2026-03-21 | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougars | Texas A&M Aggies +10.5 | 48¢ | LOSS | -0.47u | Texas A&M Aggies 57 - Houston Cougars 88 |
| 2026-03-21 | Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines -12.5 | 50¢ | WIN | +0.49u | Michigan Wolverines 95 - Saint Louis Billikens 72 |
| 2026-03-21 | Lakers vs. Magic | Under 233.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | LAL 105 - ORL 104 |
| 2026-03-21 | Thunder vs. Wizards | Wizards +21.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.47u | WAS 111 - OKC 132 |
| 2026-03-20 | California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas (-13.5) | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Kansas Jayhawks 68 - California Baptist Lancers 60 |
| 2026-03-20 | Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | Over 157.5 | 52¢ | WIN | +0.48u | Hofstra Pride 70 - Alabama Crimson Tide 90 |
| 2026-03-20 | Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders | Akron Zips +8.5 | 55¢ | LOSS | -0.55u | Akron Zips 71 - Texas Tech Red Raiders 91 |
| 2026-03-20 | Hawks vs. Rockets | Amen Thompson Under 5.5 Assists | 68¢ | WIN | +0.32u | Rockets 117 - Hawks 95 |
| 2026-03-20 | Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Ty Jerome Under 19.5 Points | 68¢ | WIN | +0.32u | BOS 117 - MEM 112 |
| 2026-03-20 | Warriors vs. Pistons | Warriors Moneyline | 32¢ | LOSS | -0.32u | GSW 101 - DET 115 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cavaliers vs. Bulls | Guerschon Yabusele Over 3.5 Rebounds | — | WIN | +0.50u | CLE 115 - CHI 110 |
| 2026-03-19 | Suns vs. Spurs | Devin Vassell: Points Over 11.5 | — | WIN | +0.50u | SAS 101 - PHX 100 |
| 2026-03-19 | Clippers vs. Pelicans | Brook Lopez: Points Over 10.5 | — | LOSS | -0.50u | Pelicans 105 - Clippers 99 |
| 2026-03-19 | VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels | Over 151.5 | 49¢ | WIN | +0.51u | VCU Rams 82 - North Carolina Tar Heels 78 |
| 2026-03-19 | South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals | Over 163.5 | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.51u | South Florida Bulls 79 - Louisville Cardinals 83 |
| 2026-03-19 | 76ers vs. Kings | Over 8.5 Rebounds | 50¢ | LOSS | -0.50u | PHI 139 - SAC 118 |
| 2026-03-19 | Lakers vs. Heat | Lakers Moneyline | 42¢ | WIN | +0.57u | LAL 134 - MIA 126 |