THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | Trail Blazers vs. Celtics | Trail Blazers +9.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | POR 94 - BOS 102 |
| 2026-01-26 | Pacers vs. Hawks | Hawks -4.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | ATL 132 - IND 116 |
| 2026-01-26 | Magic vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers Moneyline | 66¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.34u | CLE 114 - ORL 98 |
| 2026-01-26 | Lakers vs. Bulls | Over 236.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | LAL 129 - CHI 118 |
| 2026-01-26 | Grizzlies vs. Rockets | Grizzlies +10.5 | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | MEM 99 - HOU 108 |
| 2026-01-26 | Ducks vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.32u | EDM 7 - ANA 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Raptors vs. Thunder | Thunder Spread (-10.5) | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | OKC 101 - TOR 103 |
| 2026-01-25 | Rams vs. Seahawks | Anytime Touchdown | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Kyren Williams: 1 TD |
| 2026-01-25 | Patriots vs. Broncos | Over 48.5 Rushing Yards | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Rhamondre Stevenson: 71 Yards |
| 2026-01-25 | Golden Knights vs. Senators | Senators +1.5 | 65¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | OTT 7 - VGK 1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Florida Atlantic Owls vs. South Florida Bulls | South Florida Bulls -4.5 | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | South Florida Bulls 89 - Florida Atlantic Owls 75 |
| 2026-01-25 | Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs | Avalanche ML | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | COL 4 - TOR 1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat | Keyonte George Over 24.5 Points | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | George: 19 Points |
| 2026-01-24 | Sabres vs. Islanders | Sabres vs. Islanders Under 6.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | BUF 5 - NYI 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats | Kentucky Wildcats -9.5 | 53¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | Kentucky Wildcats 72 - Ole Miss Rebels 63 |
| 2026-01-24 | Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan State Spartans | Maryland Terrapins +18.5 | 49¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | Maryland Terrapins 48 - Michigan State Spartans 91 |
| 2026-01-24 | Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan State Spartans | Maryland vs. Michigan State Under 140.5 | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Maryland Terrapins 48 - Michigan State Spartans 91 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic | Under 228.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | CLE 119 - ORL 105 |
| 2026-01-24 | Bellarmine Knights vs. North Florida Ospreys | Bellarmine Knights -2.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.62u | Bellarmine Knights 114 - North Florida Ospreys 117 |
| 2026-01-23 | Suns vs. Hawks | Over 231.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | |
| 2026-01-23 | Rockets vs. Pistons | Pistons -3.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | DET 104 - HOU 111 |
| 2026-01-23 | Pelicans vs. Grizzlies (Dog of the Day) | Pelicans ML | 34¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.66u | NOP 133 - MEM 127 |
| 2026-01-23 | Pacers vs. Thunder | Thunder -15.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | OKC 114 - IND 117 |
| 2026-01-23 | Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 Points | Yes | 47¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.47u | Ohio State Buckeyes 62 - Michigan Wolverines 74 |
| 2026-01-23 | Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs | Over 5.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | |
| 2026-01-23 | Capitals vs. Flames | Flames +1.5 | 66¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.66u | CGY 1 - WSH 3 |
| 2026-01-23 | Bucks vs. Nuggets | Bucks ML | 70¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.70u | MIL 100 - DEN 102 |
| 2026-01-22 | Rockets vs. 76ers | Joel Embiid Under 24.5 Points | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Rockets 122 - 76ers 128 (OT) |
| 2026-01-22 | Red Wings vs. Wild | Red Wings +1.5 | 64¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.36u | DET 3 - MIN 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Penguins vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 62¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.62u | EDM 2 - PIT 6 |
| 2026-01-22 | Panthers vs. Jets | Jets +1.5 | 72¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.29u | WPG 1 - FLA 2 |
| 2026-01-22 | Nuggets vs. Wizards | Jonas Valančiūnas Under 12.5 Points | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Nuggets 107 - Wizards 97 |
| 2026-01-22 | Heat vs. Trail Blazers | Heat Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | MIA 110 - POR 127 |
| 2026-01-22 | Bulls vs. Timberwolves | Anthony Edwards Under 32.5 Points | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.54u | Bulls 120 - Timberwolves 115 |
| 2026-01-22 | Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes -1.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | CAR 3 - CHI 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Thunder vs. Bucks | 1H Over 116.5 | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | OKC 122 - MIL 102 |
| 2026-01-21 | Rhode Island Rams vs. Richmond Spiders | Rhode Island Rams ML (Dog of the Day) | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Rhode Island Rams 69 - Richmond Spiders 68 |
| 2026-01-21 | Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs | Red Wings Moneyline | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | DET 2 - TOR 1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Pistons vs. Pelicans | Tobias Harris Over 13.5 Points | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Pistons 112 - Pelicans 104 |
| 2026-01-21 | Penguins vs. Flames | Under 6.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | PIT 4 - CGY 1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Pacers vs. Celtics | Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 Points | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Pacers 104 - Celtics 119 |
| 2026-01-21 | Cavaliers vs. Hornets | Jarrett Allen Under 13.5 Points | 45¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.55u | Cavaliers 94 - Hornets 87 |
| 2026-01-21 | Capitals vs. Canucks | Capitals Moneyline | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.60u | WSH 3 - VAN 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Wild vs. Canadiens | Wild Spread (+1.5) | 64¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | MIN 3 - MTL 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Timberwolves vs. Jazz | Timberwolves Spread (-10.5) | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | MIN 122 - UTA 127 |
| 2026-01-20 | Suns vs. 76ers | Suns Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | PHX 116 - PHI 110 |
| 2026-01-20 | Spurs vs. Rockets | Spurs vs. Rockets Under 225.5 | 61¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | SAS 106 - HOU 111 |
| 2026-01-20 | Sharks vs. Lightning | Lightning Moneyline | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | TBL 4 - SJS 1 |
| 2026-01-20 | Raptors vs. Warriors | Raptors Moneyline (Dog of the Day) | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | TOR 145 - GSW 127 |
| 2026-01-20 | Rangers vs. Kings | Kings Moneyline | 40¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.40u | SAC 117 - MIA 130 |