THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | Lakers vs. Nuggets | Lakers vs. Nuggets Over 226.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.55u | LAL 115 - DEN 107 |
| 2026-01-19 | Wild vs. Maple Leafs | Wild (+1.5) Spread | 70¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.30u | MIN 6 - TOR 3 |
| 2026-01-19 | Miami vs. Indiana | Indiana Moneyline | 74¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.26u | Indiana Hoosiers 27 - Miami Hurricanes 21 |
| 2026-01-19 | Flyers vs. Golden Knights | Golden Knights Moneyline | 44¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.45u | VGK 1 - PHI 2 |
| 2026-01-18 | Senators vs. Red Wings | Senators +1.5 | 65¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.35u | Red Wings 4 - Senators 3 |
| 2026-01-18 | Raptors vs. Lakers | Lakers Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Lakers 110 - Raptors 93 |
| 2026-01-18 | Rams vs. Bears | Rams -3.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.52u | Rams 20 - Bears 17 |
| 2026-01-18 | Nets vs. Bulls | Bulls Moneyline | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.31u | CHI 124 - BKN 102 |
| 2026-01-18 | Lightning vs. Stars | Under 6.5 | 58¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.42u | Lightning 4 - Stars 1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Hornets vs. Nuggets | Nuggets Spread (-1.5) | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Hornets 110 - Nuggets 87 |
| 2026-01-18 | Blues vs. Oilers | Oilers Moneyline | 40¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.59u | EDM 5 - STL 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Wild vs. Sabres | Wild +1.5 | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.32u | MIN 5 - BUF 4 |
| 2026-01-17 | Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs | Under 154.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Virginia Cavaliers 72 - SMU Mustangs 68 |
| 2026-01-17 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Timberwolves Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | SAS 126 - MIN 123 |
| 2026-01-17 | Suns vs. Knicks | Knicks Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Suns 106 - Knicks 99 |
| 2026-01-17 | Seahawks vs. 49ers | Seahawks Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Seahawks 41 - 49ers 6 |
| 2026-01-17 | Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini -15.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | Illinois Fighting Illini 77 - Minnesota Golden Gophers 67 |
| 2026-01-17 | Islanders vs. Flames | Islanders Moneyline | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.51u | NYI 2 - CGY 4 |
| 2026-01-17 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack | North Carolina State Wolfpack -14.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.57u | NC State Wolfpack 74 - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 78 |
| 2026-01-16 | Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Rockets Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | HOU 110 - MIN 105 |
| 2026-01-16 | Sharks vs. Red Wings | Sharks Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Red Wings 4 - Sharks 2 |
| 2026-01-16 | Predators vs. Avalanche | Avalanche -1.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | Predators 7 - Avalanche 3 |
| 2026-01-16 | Pelicans vs. Pacers | Pelicans Moneyline | 40¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.41u | IND 127 - NOP 119 |
| 2026-01-16 | Panthers vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes Moneyline | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | CAR 9 - FLA 1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Dayton Flyers | Dayton Flyers Moneyline | 94¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.06u | Dayton 78 - Loyola Chicago 51 |
| 2026-01-16 | Clippers vs. Raptors | Raptors Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Clippers 121 - Raptors 117 |
| 2026-01-16 | Cavaliers vs. 76ers | Under 237.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | CLE 117 - PHI 115 |
| 2026-01-15 | Thunder vs. Rockets | Thunder -4.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.52u | Thunder 111 - Rockets 91 |
| 2026-01-15 | Stars vs. Utah | Stars vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Over | 30¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.29u | Utah 2 - Stars 1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Jazz vs. Mavericks | Mavericks -2.5 | 43¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.57u | Mavericks 144 - Jazz 122 |
| 2026-01-15 | Hornets vs. Lakers | Hornets Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Hornets 135 - Lakers 117 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grizzlies vs. Magic | Grizzlies vs. Magic: Under 231.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | Magic 118 - Grizzlies 111 |
| 2026-01-15 | Celtics vs. Heat | Under 235.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Celtics 119 - Heat 114 |
| 2026-01-15 | Canucks vs. Blue Jackets | Canucks ML | 40¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.41u | Blue Jackets 4 - Canucks 1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Senators vs. Rangers | Rangers Moneyline | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Senators 8 - Rangers 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Raptors vs. Pacers | Pascal Siakam: Points Over 23.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Raptors 115 - Pacers 101 (Siakam: 26 points) |
| 2026-01-14 | Nuggets vs. Mavericks | Mavericks Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Nuggets 118 - Mavericks 109 |
| 2026-01-14 | Kraken vs. Devils | Kraken Moneyline (DOG OF THE DAY) | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.60u | Devils 3 - Kraken 2 (OT) |
| 2026-01-14 | Kraken vs. Devils | Devils Moneyline | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.40u | Devils 3 - Kraken 2 (OT) |
| 2026-01-14 | Knicks vs. Kings | Knicks Moneyline | 80¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.81u | Kings 112 - Knicks 101 |
| 2026-01-14 | Jazz vs. Bulls | Bulls Moneyline | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | Bulls 128 - Jazz 126 |
| 2026-01-14 | Cavaliers vs. 76ers | 76ers Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Cavaliers 133 - 76ers 107 |
| 2026-01-13 | Timberwolves vs. Bucks | Bucks -2.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Timberwolves 139 - Bucks 106 |
| 2026-01-13 | Suns vs. Heat | Under 230.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Heat 127 - Suns 121 |
| 2026-01-13 | Stars vs. Ducks | Ducks +1.5 | 68¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.31u | Ducks 3 - Stars 1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Spurs vs. Thunder | Thunder -7.5 | 49¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Thunder 119 - Spurs 98 |
| 2026-01-13 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Hurricanes Moneyline | 61¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.61u | Blues 3 - Hurricanes 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Canucks vs. Senators | Canucks Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Senators 2 - Canucks 1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Canadiens vs. Capitals | Over 5.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.60u | Capitals 3 - Canadiens 2 (OT) |
| 2026-01-13 | Bulls vs. Rockets | Under 225.5 | 54¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.54u | Rockets 119 - Bulls 113 |