THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | Avalanche vs. Lightning | Avalanche (+1.5) | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | Lightning 4 - Avalanche 2 |
| 2026-01-05 | Wild vs. Kings | Wild +1.5 | 72¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.72u | Kings 4 - Wild 1 |
| 2026-01-05 | Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors -2.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Clippers 115 - Warriors 112 |
| 2026-01-05 | Suns vs. Rockets | Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5 Over | 52¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | Suns 97 - Rockets 100 |
| 2026-01-05 | Red Wings vs. Senators | Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 Over | 42¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.57u | Red Wings 4 - Senators 2 |
| 2026-01-05 | Nuggets vs. 76ers | 76ers -9.5 | 59¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.59u | DEN 125 - PHI 124 |
| 2026-01-05 | Jazz vs. Trail Blazers | Lauri Markkanen: Points Over 26.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Jazz 110 - Trail Blazers 105 |
| 2026-01-05 | Hornets vs. Thunder | Thunder -16.5 | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.47u | Hornets 124 - Thunder 97 |
| 2026-01-05 | Ducks vs. Capitals | Ducks Moneyline (DOG OF THE DAY) | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Capitals 5 - Ducks 2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Ravens vs. Steelers | Steelers +3.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Steelers 26 - Ravens 24 |
| 2026-01-04 | Packers vs. Vikings | Under 44.5 | 76¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.24u | Vikings 16 - Packers 3 |
| 2026-01-04 | Nuggets vs. Nets | Over 218.5 | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | Nets 127 - Nuggets 115 |
| 2026-01-04 | Grizzlies vs. Lakers | Lakers -3.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.43u | Lakers 120 - Grizzlies 114 |
| 2026-01-04 | Dolphins vs. Patriots | Patriots Moneyline | 86¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.15u | Patriots 38 - Dolphins 10 |
| 2026-01-04 | Commanders vs. Eagles | Commanders +9.5 | 67¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.33u | Commanders 24 - Eagles 17 |
| 2026-01-04 | Bucks vs. Kings | Bucks Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Bucks 115 - Kings 98 |