THE LEDGER
Every smart money sports pick from our daily podcast — tracked transparently. Powered by prediction market data from Kalshi.
Model v1 Jan–Mar 4: calibration
Model v2 Mar 5+: refined edge detection
Cumulative P&L
BY LEAGUE
NFL
11-4
73% · +3.2u · 21.4% ROI
NBA
218-173
56% · +13.1u · 3.2% ROI
MLB
0-0
0% · +0.0u · 0.0% ROI
NHL
64-43
60% · +10.3u · 9.5% ROI
CFB
1-0
100% · +0.4u · 38.5% ROI
NCAAMB
72-73
50% · -1.2u · -0.8% ROI
ALL PICKS
| Date | Matchup | Side | Entry | Units | Result | P&L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Texans vs. Steelers | Texans (-1.5) | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Texans 30 - Steelers 6 |
| 2026-01-12 | Oilers vs. Blackhawks | Oilers Moneyline | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | Oilers 4 - Blackhawks 1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Nets vs. Mavericks | Mavericks -3.5 | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.48u | Mavericks 113 - Nets 105 |
| 2026-01-12 | Lakers vs. Kings | Lakers -9.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Kings 124 - Lakers 112 |
| 2026-01-12 | Jazz vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers Moneyline | 84¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.84u | Jazz 123 - Cavaliers 112 |
| 2026-01-12 | Canucks vs. Canadiens | Canucks Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Canadiens 6 - Canucks 3 |
| 2026-01-12 | 76ers vs. Raptors | Under 221.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | 76ers 115 - Raptors 102 |
| 2026-01-11 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 1H Over 121.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.59u | Timberwolves 104 - Spurs 103 |
| 2026-01-11 | Pelicans vs. Magic | Under 234.5 | 53¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.53u | Pelicans 118 - Magic 128 |
| 2026-01-11 | Heat vs. Thunder | Over 231.5 | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Thunder 124 - Heat 118 |
| 2026-01-11 | Chargers vs. Patriots | Chargers Moneyline (Dog of the Day) | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Patriots 16 - Chargers 3 |
| 2026-01-11 | Bucks vs. Nuggets | Over 29.5 Points | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | Giannis scored 33 (Final Bucks 112-108) |
| 2026-01-11 | Bills vs. Jaguars | Bills -1.5 | 44¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.56u | Bills 31 - Jaguars 20 |
| 2026-01-11 | 49ers vs. Eagles | 49ers Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | 49ers 28 - Eagles 21 |
| 2026-01-10 | Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers | Over 29.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.49u | Cavaliers 110 - Timberwolves 102 |
| 2026-01-10 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley vs. East Texas AM | UTRGV Moneyline (DOG OF THE DAY) | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | East Texas AM 77 - Texas-Rio Grande Valley 69 |
| 2026-01-10 | Rangers vs. Bruins | Over 5.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | Bruins 10 - Rangers 2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Rangers vs. Bruins | Bruins Moneyline | 55¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.45u | Bruins 3 - Rangers 2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Packers vs. Bears | Packers Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Bears 31 - Packers 27 |
| 2026-01-10 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Indiana Hoosiers | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Nebraska 78 - Indiana 75 |
| 2026-01-10 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Indiana Hoosiers | Nebraska Cornhuskers (+4.5) | 52¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.47u | Nebraska 78 - Indiana 75 |
| 2026-01-09 | Thunder vs. Grizzlies | Thunder -3.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.57u | Thunder 117 - Grizzlies 116 |
| 2026-01-09 | Raptors vs. Celtics | Celtics -7.5 | 56¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.44u | Celtics 120 - Raptors 104 |
| 2026-01-09 | Pelicans vs. Wizards | Pelicans -1.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Pelicans 116 - Wizards 112 |
| 2026-01-09 | Oregon vs. Indiana | Indiana Moneyline | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | Indiana 56 - Oregon 22 |
| 2026-01-09 | Kings vs. Jets | Jets (+1.5) | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | Jets 4 - Kings 2 |
| 2026-01-09 | Clippers vs. Nets | Nets +2.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Clippers 115 - Nets 102 |
| 2026-01-08 | Wild vs. Kraken | Wild Moneyline | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | Wild 3 - Kraken 1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Sabres vs. Rangers | Sabres Moneyline | 54¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.46u | Sabres 5 - Rangers 2 |
| 2026-01-08 | Pacers vs. Hornets | Hornets -4.5 | 50¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Pacers 122 - Hornets 111 |
| 2026-01-08 | Miami vs. Ole Miss | Miami Moneyline | 62¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.39u | Miami 27 - Ole Miss 24 |
| 2026-01-08 | Mavericks vs. Jazz | Over 236.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.60u | Jazz 116 - Mavericks 114 |
| 2026-01-08 | Heat vs. Bulls | Heat -5.5 | 55¢ | 1.0u | PUSH | +0.00u | Postponed |
| 2026-01-08 | Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves | Cavaliers +4.5 | 57¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.57u | Cavaliers 122 - Timberwolves 131 |
| 2026-01-08 | Canucks vs. Red Wings | Canucks Moneyline | 42¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.42u | Red Wings 5 - Canucks 1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Stars vs. Capitals | Over 5.5 | 58¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.58u | DAL 4 - WSH 1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Sharks vs. Kings | Sharks +1.5 | 51¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.49u | SJS 4 - LAK 3 |
| 2026-01-07 | Raptors vs. Hornets | Raptors 1H Moneyline | 48¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.48u | Raptors 97 - Hornets 96 |
| 2026-01-07 | Pelicans vs. Hawks | Over 245.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Hawks 117 - Pelicans 100 |
| 2026-01-07 | Jazz vs. Thunder | Over 238.5 | 60¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.41u | Thunder 141 - Jazz 105 |
| 2026-01-07 | Jazz vs. Thunder | Thunder (-17.5) | 60¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.59u | Thunder 129 - Jazz 125 |
| 2026-01-07 | Bucks vs. Warriors | Warriors (-5.5) | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Warriors 118 - Bucks 109 |
| 2026-01-07 | Belmont Bruins vs. Northern Iowa | Belmont Bruins Moneyline | — | 1.0u | WIN | +0.50u | Belmont 78 - Northern Iowa 65 |
| 2026-01-06 | Magic vs. Wizards | Magic -8.5 | 44¢ | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.44u | ORL 112 - WAS 120 |
| 2026-01-06 | Lakers vs. Pelicans | LeBron James: Points Over 22.5 | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.54u | Lakers 115 - Pelicans 110 |
| 2026-01-06 | Heat vs. Timberwolves | Heat +4.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Timberwolves 112 - Heat 98 |
| 2026-01-06 | Golden Knights vs. Jets | Jets (+1.5) | 50¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.51u | Jets 3 - Golden Knights 2 |
| 2026-01-06 | Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Cavaliers -4.5 | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | Cavaliers 120 - Pacers 116 |
| 2026-01-06 | Canucks vs. Sabres | Canucks Moneyline | — | 1.0u | LOSS | -0.50u | BUF 5 - VAN 3 |
| 2026-01-06 | Bruins vs. Kraken | Kraken (+1.5) | 46¢ | 1.0u | WIN | +0.53u | SEA 7 - BOS 4 |